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rffrydr
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 Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:36 am Post subject: |
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Mr. Brics, Jim Oniel, says we're too bearish but....:
| Quote: | | "I worry that there's some elements of China's politics that one can't understand in the West," O'Neill said, but added that he believed the upcoming changes were "good for those who believe in further change and reform." |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.economist.com/node/21542924
| Quote: | | The party state has reinforced its power by creating “vertical” business groups. In most emerging markets (including Hong Kong next door) business groups are “horizontal”: companies sprawl into adjacent businesses—telecoms companies into hotels, shipping companies into property—in order to exploit their local connections. In China business groups focus on particular industries. The party state encourages companies to band together into industry clusters by giving them preferential access to contracts and stockmarket listings. It also encourages them to establish subdivisions such as a domestic holding company, a finance company, a research institute and a foreign division. SASAC typically owns 100% of the shares in the holding company. The holding company in turn owns a smaller proportion of shares—say 60%—in the foreign division. This makes it possible for business groups to present lots of different faces—for instance, an inward-looking one in the form of the holding company and an outward-looking one in the form of the international division. It also allows the party state to exercise control of an entire chain of companies. Thus PetroChina might look like a regular Western company, with a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. But in fact it is the international division of a huge group called China National Petroleum Corporation, the foreign head of a dragon whose body and raison d’être lie in Beijing. |
--culture comes first...or, last depending on how you want to look at it.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Looking for a continuing resurgence in Chinese, Chinese financials, and global financials over the next several months. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:04 am Post subject: |
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Just cut reserves 50bp. All those free marketeers loaded up on this full faith and credit are going to be put the test.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 8:47 am Post subject: |
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TMM on recent, pre-ordianed, bust:
| Quote: | | But here is where TMM find themselves out of line with the market thinking. First, you haven’t thought anything through until you consider the government and likely policy responses, given the command economy context. In TMM’s opinion watching the banking sector explode into a flaming wreck is not something the government will sit by and watch idly and the last time we heard of Wenzhou SME’s blowing up, credit loosening was not far behind. Similarly, some will point to high levels of inflation, but breaking China inflation down into food, non food and housing (see chart below; white line - food, orange line - non food, yellow line - rents), a big part of non-food makes it pretty clear that food is beginning to turn for its own reasons, while house prices and rents really are falling out of bed. Given what global financial conditions have been doing (and reading some chemical company transcripts), we are inclined to think that the global situation has gotten bad enough for the PBOC hawks to stay hooded when the local banks scream for looser credit. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 5:40 am Post subject: |
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What a foreign concept for us here, that Apple is an inappropriate commercial activity on campus. We may believe Marxism is long dead in china, but the ideals don't go easily into the night.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/09/peking-university-students-irked-by-apples-campus-presence.html
One of the first and strongest impressions when you visit the big chinese cities (and even the rice fields for that matter) is the absolute and complete conscription of space--where there's not even room for trees for example. Everything about a university is competitive, even a chair in the library.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon May 09, 2011 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Showing a willingness to control rising prices with aggressive tactics, Chinese authorities on Friday fined consumer-goods maker Unilever PLC for talking publicly about planned price hikes, which the government said contributed to a scramble for products like soap and detergent in the inflation-hit country. |
--wsj
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:33 am Post subject: |
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What's up Daddyo? Family and business, business and family--something forgotten by "shareholders":
| Code: | Prospectuses may warn, as SJM’s did, that founder/chairmen can “influence or control our business in ways that might not be in the interests of other shareholders.” But investors in sprawling conglomerates in India, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia may not appreciate the risk of a feud until they see one. The one constant, as the paterfamilias divvies up the spoils, is that minorities just don’t matter.
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This, the traditional weakness of asian business structures, until china's overlay of Confucianism on dictatorship...and Russia's cult of power beat down the oligarchs. Still, SP is the way to play IMHO.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2010 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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"Bejing Consensus" is the role-model everywhere standing against the US--everywhere but home:
| Quote: | CHINESE officials said the opening of the World Expo in Shanghai on April 30th would be simple and frugal. It wasn’t. The display of fireworks, laser beams, fountains and dancers rivalled the extravagance of Beijing’s Olympic ceremonies in 2008. The government’s urge to show off Chinese dynamism proved irresistible. For many, the razzmatazz lit up the China model for all the world to admire.
The multi-billion-dollar expo embodies this supposed model, which has won China many admirers in developing countries and beyond. A survey by the Pew Research Centre, an American polling organisation, found that 85% of Nigerians viewed China favourably last year (compared with 79% in 2008), as did 50% of Americans (up from 39% in 2008) and 26% of Japanese (up from 14%, see chart). China’s ability to organise the largest ever World Expo, including a massive upgrade to Shanghai’s infrastructure, with an apparent minimum of the bickering that plagues democracies, is part of what dazzles.
Scholars and officials in China itself, however, are divided over whether there is a China model (or “Beijing consensus” as it was dubbed in 2004 by Joshua Cooper Ramo, an American consultant, playing on the idea of a declining “Washington consensus”), and if so what the model is and whether it is wise to talk about it. The Communist Party is diffident about laying claim to any development model that other countries might copy. Official websites widely noted a report by a pro-Party newspaper in Hong Kong, Ta Kung Pao, calling the expo “a display platform for the China model”. But Chinese leaders avoid using the term and in public describe the expo in less China-centred language.
Not so China’s publishing industry, which in recent months has been cashing in on an upsurge of debate in China about the notion of a China model (one-party rule, an eclectic approach to free markets and a big role for state enterprise being among its commonly identified ingredients). In November a prominent Party-run publisher produced a 630-page tome titled “China Model: A New Development Model from the Sixty Years of the People’s Republic”. In January came the more modest “China Model: Experiences and Difficulties”. Another China-model book was launched in April and debated at an expo-related forum in Shanghai. Its enthusiastic authors include Zhao Qizheng, a former top Party propaganda official, and John Naisbitt, an American futurologist.
Western publishers have been no less enthused by China’s continued rapid growth. The most recent entry in the field is “The Beijing Consensus, How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century” by Stefan Halper, an American academic. Mr Halper, who has served as an official in various Republican administrations, argues that “just as globalisation is shrinking the world, China is shrinking the West” by quietly limiting the projection of its values.
But despite China’s status as “the world’s largest billboard advertisement for the new alternative” of going capitalist and staying autocratic, Party leaders are, as Mr Halper describes it, gripped by a fear of losing control and of China descending into chaos. It is this fear, he says, that is a driving force behind China’s worrying external behaviour. Party rule, the argument runs, depends on economic growth, which in turn depends on resources supplied by unsavoury countries. Politicians in Africa in fact rarely talk about following a “Beijing consensus”. But they love the flow of aid from China that comes without Western lectures about governance and human rights.
The same fear makes Chinese leaders reluctant to wax lyrical about a China model. They are acutely aware of American sensitivity to any talk suggesting the emergence of a rival power and ideology—and conflict with America could wreck China’s economic growth.
In 2003 Chinese officials began talking of the country’s “peaceful rise”, only to drop the term a few months later amid worries that even the word “rise” would upset the flighty Americans. Zhao Qizheng, the former propaganda official, writes that he prefers “China case” to “China model”. Li Junru, a senior Party theorist, said in December that talk of a China model was “very dangerous” because complacency might set in that would sap enthusiasm for further reforms.
Some Chinese lament that this is already happening. Political reform, which the late architect of China’s developmental model, Deng Xiaoping, once argued was essential for economic liberalisation, has barely progressed since he crushed the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. Liu Yawei of the Carter Centre, an American human-rights group wrote last month that efforts by Chinese scholars to promote the idea of a China model have become “so intense and effective” that political reform has been “swept aside”.
Chinese leaders’ fear of chaos suggests they themselves are not convinced that they have found the right path. Talk of a model is made all the harder by the stability-threatening problems that breakneck growth engenders, from environmental destruction to rampant corruption and a growing gap between rich and poor. One of China’s more outspoken media organisations, Caixin, this week published an article by Joseph Nye, an American academic. In it Mr Nye writes of the risks posed by China’s uncertain political trajectory. “Generations change, power often creates hubris and appetites sometimes grow with eating,” he says.
One Western diplomat, using the term made famous by Mr Nye, describes the expo as a “competition between soft powers”. But if China’s soft power is in the ascendant and America’s declining—as many Chinese commentators write—the event, which is due to end on October 31st, hardly shows it. True, China succeeded in persuading a record number of countries to take part. But visitor turnout has been far lower than organisers had anticipated. And queues outside America’s dour pavilion have been among the longest. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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Make no mistake, the world owes China a debt of gratitude for the speed and robustness of its stimulus, without an equally robust recovery in the western world however this stimulus will be looked back on in its circularity, the strange mirror of a credit bubble in factories. The way capacity is being filled by investment in capacity imagines a very busy future. "Diversified" EEM holders must be prepared to sip at this same fountain:
| Quote: | | In a disturbing new report, the European Chamber of Commerce in China lays out the challenge in six sectors: aluminium, where the capacity utilisation rate is forecast to be 67 per cent in 2009; wind power, on 70 per cent; steel, on 72 per cent; cement, on 78 per cent; chemicals, on 80 per cent; and refining, on 85 per cent. Yet vast additional capacity is on the way. |
http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/a75ade98-dd14-11de-ad60-00144feabdc0.html?catid=96&SID=5fb625384bc8703ff55ff0f75a3f85af
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