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The "D" Word |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: The "D" Word |
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As mentioned in another post, the word "depression" seems to have been rarely used during the actual event. Factiva hasn't been applied there, yet. But in the here and now, yes:
| Quote: | Depression obsession
Published: October 17 2008 15:12 | Last updated: October 17 2008 19:47
The old joke says that a recession is when your neighbour loses his job and a depression is when you lose yours. But the reality is that economists have no firm benchmark for what distinguishes one from the other. This has given rise to some unwarranted comparisons between today’s crisis and the calamity of the 1930s. Type the term “Great Depression” into the press search engine Factiva and nearly 11,000 references over the past three months pop up, almost four times the same period a year ago. Several articles refer to recent stock market gyrations or house price declines, which are indeed some of the worst since the 1930s. Even so, a bit of perspective is in order.
From 1929 through 1933, the United States saw real economic output fall by nearly a third and unemployment soar from 3 per cent to 25 per cent. Stock prices took a quarter century to regain their peak. Since then, referring to an economic downturn as a “depression” has been seen as alarmist. Carter administration economist Alfred Kahn was famously admonished when he warned of one (he cheekily called it a banana instead). Even the worst postwar downturn, from 1973 through 1975, saw US output, from quarterly peak to trough, fall by almost 3 per cent and unemployment rise to 8.3 per cent – nasty, but a different order of magnitude entirely.
When that recession began, Ben Bernanke was a university student, Hank Paulson was just joining Goldman Sachs, and many of today’s masters of the universe were still in diapers. But the fact that they might have needed them again during the past several weeks does not make the looming downturn a depression. In spite of George Santayana’s famous warning about being condemned to repeat the past, the policy mistakes of the 1930s are the most-studied of all time. Unless governments reverse their forceful response – with ruinous trade wars, tighter money and balanced budgets – “depression” will remain a word for the history books. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 11:03 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/world/asia/07pride.html?_r=1&hp
| Quote: | In a competitive, status-conscious society, these and other workers say they feel intense shame doing manual work. Some also say they feel guilty working such rough jobs after years of expensive cram schools and college. And many younger workers, having grown up in an increasingly affluent nation, consider physical labor a part of the bygone, impoverished eras of their parents and grandparents.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2009 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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Financial press predictions
Published: April 24 2009 15:28 | Last updated: April 24 2009 20:19
It failed, some charge, to spot the brewing crisis. More to the point, others say, the financial press is now compounding its sins by failing to see the recovery. Group-think media gloom may even be making things worse. Flickers of hope – such as a rise in German business confidence – are treated sceptically, winning less airplay than grim news such as the rise in Spanish unemployment to 17 per cent. Columnist Luke Johnson claims that print journalists can’t see beyond their own internet-ravaged industry. But is that really true? The press draws pictures with words and those words are changing, for right or wrong. Mentions of “green shoots” doubled in April versus March, those of “depression” fell a quarter. The ratio of “recovery” to “recession” rose to 94 per cent from 88. That is a sign of optimism – albeit, with a 12 per cent decline in “growth”, a small one.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2009 7:53 am Post subject: |
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Mexico will invest in itself:
| Quote: | | When economic times are bad, the invisible hand seems to lead inexorably to economic nationalism and protection. That explains why money is moving away from those with most staked on globalisation, particularly those exposed to the US. |
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebee89f4-13ef-11de-9e32-0000779fd2ac.html
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 8:13 am Post subject: |
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From the Broker:
| Quote: | | The stock market has seen its worst January/February return looking back to 1928. As of about 1:00 CT Friday, the S&P 500 was down 18.72% for 2009. The closest January/February performance to 2009 occurred in 1933 when prices were down 18.15% February year to date. Most of the loss in 1933 occurred in February. The market did bounce in March (3.4%), April (33.9%), and May (23.2%). 1933 may not be a great analog, but it stands out as the only other year in recent history where the market started out so poorly. In 1948, the market opened the first two months of the year falling 9%. There was an 8.3% rally in March. In 1978, the market contracted 8.6% in January and February and rallied 2.4% in March and 8.5% in April. Lastly, in 2008 the market opened the first two months down 9.6%. There was a 0.6% dip in March a 4.75% gain in April. These examples seem to suggest the market should stabilize and see a short covering rally in March and April. The trajectory of the down move is maybe the most supportive factor facing the market. |
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