 |
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
The "D" Word |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: The "D" Word |
 |
|
As mentioned in another post, the word "depression" seems to have been rarely used during the actual event. Factiva hasn't been applied there, yet. But in the here and now, yes:
| Quote: | Depression obsession
Published: October 17 2008 15:12 | Last updated: October 17 2008 19:47
The old joke says that a recession is when your neighbour loses his job and a depression is when you lose yours. But the reality is that economists have no firm benchmark for what distinguishes one from the other. This has given rise to some unwarranted comparisons between today’s crisis and the calamity of the 1930s. Type the term “Great Depression” into the press search engine Factiva and nearly 11,000 references over the past three months pop up, almost four times the same period a year ago. Several articles refer to recent stock market gyrations or house price declines, which are indeed some of the worst since the 1930s. Even so, a bit of perspective is in order.
From 1929 through 1933, the United States saw real economic output fall by nearly a third and unemployment soar from 3 per cent to 25 per cent. Stock prices took a quarter century to regain their peak. Since then, referring to an economic downturn as a “depression” has been seen as alarmist. Carter administration economist Alfred Kahn was famously admonished when he warned of one (he cheekily called it a banana instead). Even the worst postwar downturn, from 1973 through 1975, saw US output, from quarterly peak to trough, fall by almost 3 per cent and unemployment rise to 8.3 per cent – nasty, but a different order of magnitude entirely.
When that recession began, Ben Bernanke was a university student, Hank Paulson was just joining Goldman Sachs, and many of today’s masters of the universe were still in diapers. But the fact that they might have needed them again during the past several weeks does not make the looming downturn a depression. In spite of George Santayana’s famous warning about being condemned to repeat the past, the policy mistakes of the 1930s are the most-studied of all time. Unless governments reverse their forceful response – with ruinous trade wars, tighter money and balanced budgets – “depression” will remain a word for the history books. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| Author |
The "D" Word Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:13 am Post subject: |
|
|
On a trip to Yunnan during the Great Depression, Rock wrote: "we know nothing of depressions...nobody works for a living—that is in an industrial capacity—hence there are no hard times."
No Depressions maybe...hard times? Hardley likely.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:13 am Post subject: |
|
|
Yes, the economy runs deep. You're fooling yourself if you think the foodie trends of "local sourcing," "urban farming" and "naturalism" don't go hand-in-hand."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-rooftop-farm-20111023,0,769304.story
| Quote: | | Flanner is a 30-year-old hipster-hayseed who came to New York from Wisconsin for a job in finance and threw it all away to turn a compost pile as big as a king-size bed. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sun Aug 28, 2011 12:31 pm Post subject: |
|
|
About the way I feel about it:
http://www.economist.com/node/21526901
Waiting for the earth to open
The usual accelerators of recession are absent—but so are the brakes
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Food Stamps: $65B in the pot....right now.
http://www.economist.com/node/18958475
| Quote: | | Spending on food stamps has risen so quickly because, unusually, almost all the needy are automatically and indefinitely eligible for them. Unemployment benefits last for a maximum of 99 weeks at the moment, and that is due to fall to six months from next year. No one knows exactly how many people have exhausted their allotment, as the government does not attempt to count them. But almost half of the 14m unemployed have been out of a job for six months or more, and so would no longer qualify for benefits under the rules that will apply from January 1st. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2011 7:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
I'm comfortable with QEII 1/2 and status quo--but worries persist:
| Quote: | | This process of thinking through offsets to a sharp fiscal tightening is inescapable. The answer that avoids yet more problems in the private sectors of over-indebted countries is a shift in external balances. Thus, the external rebalancing – more or less blocked, at present – and fiscal rebalancing are two sides of a coin. |
The ghost of 1937:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43572289
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2011 12:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This is how you know we're on the way out:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-cinemacon-20110330,0,1953345.story
Other than the blip fall '08, the cinema has been the place where we come together. Either to escape, "Avatar" (who's hero is crippled) or embrace "Up in the Air" the movies were the place to share the pain--and the inevitable laughs.
It's not Netflix or 3D prices (though gouging in hardtimes is not the way ahead, guys). It's recovery! I'm a big moviegoer and have been buying my tix through Groupon--$13 CA doesn't cut it.
Looking for a flop of a summer (Hangover II and pretty-boy Thor....yeah!) and if the old Hollywood exchange were viable we could probably take a short here.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 9:38 am Post subject: |
|
|
We stand in the unemployment line with our iPhones--and fill out our living rooms with lowly plasmas:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-plasma-tv-20110204,0,892030.story
Full disclosure: this includes me. If you like movies and don't watch much in the daylight there's no better tv to be had. The "Greatest Generation" has given us a dividend that just keeps on paying.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
