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THE DEFICIT
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Author THE DEFICIT
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:16 pm    Post subject: THE DEFICIT Reply with quote

James Grant hits the panic button; treasury yields to 6%:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vgw2HcyTg7zU.mp3
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't find the link but BW has a blurb on the tax windfall from all the folks NOT taking the mortgage deduction now.

The circle is turning.....

[edit] gotta use google to search BW

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-26/a-tax-windfall-from-the-housing-bust
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This should be no surprise to MT readers: US net exporter of petroleum.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203441704577068670488306242.html

And boy is this stupid. Where's the energy policy???
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes Horatio, we are an oil exporter:

Quote:
The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in September to its narrowest level since December on record-high exports, while the flow of imports from China slowed.

The seasonally adjusted trade deficit was $43.1 billion, down from a revised $44.9 billion in August, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to widen to $46 billion. U.S. exports rose 1.4 percent to a record-high $180.4 billion, while imports were $223.5 billion.

Imports from China, which are not seasonally adjusted, fell to $36.4 billion in September from $37.4 billion a month earlier, narrowing the trade deficit with that country to $28.1 billion.


Indeed, many forget, this "breadbasket to the world" was first and foremost a commodity country.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 01, 2011 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2011 4:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Every little drop counts:

Quote:
Breitburn isn't the only California oil company looking to reverse California's long decline in oil production. Over the last five years, privately held Signal Hill Petroleum has buried 6,000 small yellow canisters around Long Beach and Signal Hill that contain sophisticated equipment so sensitive it can record the vibrations of a person walking past.

The devices work in tandem with the company's fleet of "vibroseis" trucks, 68,000-pound vehicles that use hydraulics to bounce. The bouncing trucks produce vibrations that create images of formations as far as 3 miles underground, said Dave Slater, chief operating officer for Signal Hill Petroleum.


http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-boom-20111029,0,7414545.story

This is California BTW.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chinese doing some serious "profit-taking" on treasuries as market hysteria makes us "self-funded"--just what the doctor ordered Confused
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The rich are still getting richer...and so is the country:




http://blog.yardeni.com/
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A little bit of Baghdad in your own backyard: price $75B.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/september11/la-na-911-homeland-money-20110828,0,5318393.story
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diesel
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would disagree smile. The legislative branch enacted a law which is at odds with the constitution therefore the debt limit is unconstitutional. The president should tell treasury to continue paying the bills and take the case to the supreme court.

Note that Clinton has said he would go down this path if he was still president.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

diesel wrote:
Quote:
the government needs to cut federal spending by 40%, which would create a significant drag on the economy in the short term


More than the short term. The great depression would look like child's play in comparison.

I cant believe things have got to this point in the US. The president should simply instruct the treasury to continue making payments and invoke the 14th amendment or instruct the federal reserve to allow an overdraft offset against its treasury holdings.


_______

I'm no constitutional expert but just looking at it from a common sense point of view, the executive branch override of the legislative branch via invoking 14th amendment is probably not constitutional.

One aspect is if one thinks in terms of taxation w/out representation - a debt ceiling increase by executive override would be just that - since in order to back the higher debt, tax revenues/expenditures will have to be adjusted net in order to pay down debt or reduce deficit incurred from higher debt ceiling.

The other aspect is separation of powers. The executive override would supercede the power given solely to the legislative branch (Congress). Not what the framers had in mind me thinks.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes. It's not the "deadline" or the debtload. It's the indecisiveness that just festers and erodes confidence that any disciplined approach to our finances can be taken in the years to come.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
the government needs to cut federal spending by 40%, which would create a significant drag on the economy in the short term


More than the short term. The great depression would look like child's play in comparison.

I cant believe things have got to this point in the US. The president should simply instruct the treasury to continue making payments and invoke the 14th amendment or instruct the federal reserve to allow an overdraft offset against its treasury holdings.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bridgewater comments on the US debt ceiling:

Quote:
An Update on the Implications of Not Raising the Debt Ceiling

The continued impasse over raising the debt ceiling in Washington means that the possibility of a technical default by the US government, while still unlikely, has risen in the last few weeks and cannot be ignored. Achieving a deal in time for the August 2 deadline is increasingly at risk, and it's more likely that any deal will be less ambitious and shorter-term in nature than earlier plans. Given the current proposals on the table, there's a growing possibility that even if a deal is struck before August 2, the debt ceiling debate will come to a head again before the end of the year. In the last two days, the markets that are most affected by the risk of a US default have experienced their biggest moves so far and at this point are pricing in a reasonable chance that a deal to raise the debt ceiling will not be reached before the current deadline.

Even if a deal is not completed by August 2, default is still unlikely, because the Treasury has some flexibility beyond that deadline to buy time (on the order of days, not weeks). Beyond those steps, the Treasury could most likely avoid default temporarily by engaging in a partial government shutdown. There are some legal and practical questions about the Treasury's flexibility along these lines, and there are some political questions that we can't answer for sure, but the odds are a default can be averted for some reasonable period even if the debt ceiling is not raised. In order to make debt payments without taking on new debt, the government needs to cut federal spending by 40%, which would create a significant drag on the economy in the short term, and add pressure on policymakers to come up with a deal to resume spending quickly. Even a technical default, as long as it is for a short period, appears to be manageable, although that will depend on how investors end up reacting. Even with the recent moves, the markets are still pricing the debt ceiling event will be no big deal. While we're not sure of anything, our digging suggests that this is probably right. Here is how we see the market pricing and the implications.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our online stuff has traditionally excluded "Alaska and Hawaii" on shipping. Looks like all that investment on the high seas has finally broken that barrier. Smile
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Retail hurting a lot here in Australia/NZ as consumers turn to US internet shops for there goods. Retailers being thrown under the bus....
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