The Great Deleveraging

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:28 pm Post subject: The Great Deleveraging

Similar views from Peter Bernstein regarding our longer-term credit/economic outlook in this weekend's commentary:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=670

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject:

Morgan Stanley, flat, "hits it out of the park."
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

dknoester · Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:45 am Post subject: The Kirk Report

This morning's view:

http://www.thekirkreport.com/

DK
_________________
Be careful while stuffing your pockets not to lose your pants!!

Suomodo · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject:

I think everything is prepared for a nice show tommorow.

Fed has called GS what the earnings are. If good 25bp cut if bad 50 bp rate cut ...

Some cash prepared to be injected, short sellers to be squezed, some media offensive ...

If the effect is dramatic (and it can be in these oversold readings).... like 500+ DJIA points up again we have a rally towards election (under the heading crisis mastered, its over).. If failed we head south and the next president of the USA is Barrack Obama ...

However the house prices and credit spreads are to watch for THE bottom

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject:

DK, thanks for that. Yeah, since that fella got married and moved he's taken himself out of the game--on purpose.

Smartest trade. Let us know when he bites.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

dknoester · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: The Kirk Report

Kirk's take on the market:

"Waiting For An Edge

Monday, September 15, 2008 at 12:24 PM

A number of you are probably wondering what I’m doing on a day like today.

Truthfully, I’m doing very little. I spent the majority of the morning catching up on my reading from the weekend (another link post is coming up), keeping my eyes on a few of my real-time scans, and not much else. While I kind of figured we would see the market try to fade the gap down (most of the gaps have been faded with relative consistency of late), after that I couldn’t really find an edge since I’m not seeing any new setups and none of my price alerts have been triggered.

For what it is worth, my bias into this week is to want the market to wipe out this morning’s rebound and break those July lows so we can clear out the stops lurking below that would set up another counter-trend rip. However, once again the Fed has thrown a monkey wrench into that plan with another rate cut looming large tomorrow. Indeed, we trade in interesting times.

In addition, I should also point out that even with all of the ups and downs we’ve seen, we’re not even oversold enough (I’d like to see another sub-20 reading in the T2108) that it makes sense to put money to work just based on the factor alone. Yes, we’re a bit better off than we were a couple of weeks ago, but it may not be enough:

Bottom line, I’m trying to be patient here and the fact that I’m not seeing anything actionable now makes it easier than it normally would given the current headlines we read today. I’m letting the price alerts do the heavy lifting and without any triggers, I can feel ok about sitting on my hands."

DK
_________________
Be careful while stuffing your pockets not to lose your pants!!

robo · Newbie Joined: 28 Jun 2008 Posts: 14

Suomodo · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:24 am Post subject:

No idea, my memory goes only 3 years ... I doubt anyone can predict a crash ... it is an outlier and very unprobable especially in modest to low valuations. If crash not probable under any other scenario we are seeing veeery oversold readings now ..

But I think the rally in stocks since 2003 did not include public, and it did not reach overvaluations.. this crisis was thus very expected one ... talked all over about it since at least 2006.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:15 am Post subject:

Mr. Modo--why do you think the PC ratios are so tame relative to '02?
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

Suomodo · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:26 am Post subject:

I added last 10% of my funds at SPX 1215... Smile

) Fed will be proactive tommorow I suppose 50 bp is more probable than 25bp ...

Option exspiration can give us a boost .. Seems promising ...

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:07 am Post subject:

I thought we'd make 1180....I'm in.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

Suomodo · Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:08 am Post subject:

VIX spikes over 30, P/C ration 1,45 .. if we survive today i.e. SPX over 1200 this is the bottom ... for at least two months.....

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject:

Yeah, funny...yet then comes the 70billion backup consortia Exclamation

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122144631339134981.html?mod=mktw
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject:

I love this quote:

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 8:48 pm Post subject:

Miller Tabek discounting the selloff:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/15/15846/hang-on-tony-crescenzi-says-its-time-to-look-forward-not-back/
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 7:37 pm Post subject:

Fed expands lending facilities to alleviate short-term funding needs as a response to unwinding Lehman's trading positions. The temporary/revised facilities are expected to encompass equities for collateral purposes:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122143939332934501.html?mod=special_coverage