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The Irish Bailout

 
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Author The Irish Bailout
HenryTo
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:11 am    Post subject: The Irish Bailout Reply with quote

The government of Ireland just made an executive decision to safeguard all deposits, covered bonds, senior debt, and subordinated debt of six major domestic financial institutions:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=5475
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2010 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

30% of their assets are outside the country, including a UK mortgage operation that will be sold. Don't be surprised if NO further equity rise.

Quote:
"In the absence of private funding we will have to capitalise them as well."


Unsurprisingly, this was the quote that put fear into IRE investors. "We're here to help....." Anyone who read the irish papers however realized that it was AIB that ground on the govt.; and the fact that they had to pass those branches every day on their way to their cabinet meetings.

But you can't have a villain without a hero. Every country has its national bank.

NAMA in a tiny country like this amounted to just a margin call at a firesale mark. Exactly the opposite of its intentions! The stress tests in Europe, similarly, called attention to all the sovereign stuff "unstressed." A recovering economy will push through this however and the longer the SP stays above 1220 the more this trash will seem treasure.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

FYI. Note that Bank of Ireland's common has nearly doubled in the last several weeks so they should be able to raise capital from equity shareholders.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Irish govt ready to help Bank of Ireland, Irish Life

DUBLIN | Thu Dec 23, 2010 8:40am EST

Dec 23 (Reuters) - The Irish government said it would inject state funds into Bank of Ireland (BKIR.L) and Irish Life & Permanent (IPM.I) if they were unable to raise additional capital from private sources.

"We are going to have to ensure that Bank of Ireland and Irish Life also meet their capital requirements," finance minister Brian Lenihan told state broadcaster RTE on Thursday.

"In the absence of private funding we will have to capitalise them as well."

Lenihan also said the government would speed up the winding down of nationalised lenders Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL] and Irish Nationwide [IRNBS.UL].

"We are going to have to accelerate the phasing out of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide very early in the new year."
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not much of a bailout now - as the nationalization of Anglo Irish Bank is striking fear into both the remaining bank's management (because of the potential for further mark-downs) and investors:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/16/anglo-irish-update-markets-equity-cx_ll_vr_0116markets08.html?partner=yahootix
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Irish government finalizes banks recap plan:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122990188658125033.html?mod=testMod

Quote:
Ireland's finance ministry said it will inject €5.5 billion ($7.66 billion) into three banks and take large stakes in them, days after a loan-accounting scandal at Anglo Irish Bank Corp. further weakened the country's already fragile banking sector.

The government said it would make an initial investment of €1.5 billion in Anglo Irish in exchange for preference shares that will give it 75% of the voting rights of the bank. It said it was ready to invest additional money in the bank "if required so that it remains a sound and viable institution."

The government will also invest €2 billion each in Bank of Ireland PLC and Allied Irish Banks PLC, in exchange for 25% of the voting rights of each bank.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We should see some serious dilution but given where the shares are trading at, this should be a good development for AIB common equity shareholders:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3760945/Ireland-commits-10bn-to-its-banks.html
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here it is. The Irish government finally acts with a 10 billion Euro rescue. Disclosure: I am long the AIB (Allied Irish Banks) ADRs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9BYSp2vintw&refer=home
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why private investors are willing to invest in Irish banks:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122789098263464517.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

Quote:
If the Irish banks were to boost their Core Tier 1 ratios from their current levels of around 6% to somewhere closer to the new European benchmark of around 8.5%, they would between them require something in the region of 10 billion euros, according to Irish broker NCB. At current share prices, that would require an increase of between 150% and 300% in individual banks share capital. Given the scale of the likely dilution, it's little surprise that Irish bank shares have so far fallen up to 95% since early 2007.

The puzzle is why any private investor might be interested in providing capital under these circumstances when private capital has been so conspicuously unwilling to come to the aid of other western banks. One reason may be that Irish banks look comparatively cheap. They trade on an average price to book value of just 0.21. That's much lower than Deutsche Bank's 0.43, Barclays' 0.46 and HSBC's 1.31.

But a more intriguing reason may be that the Irish banks' capital positions might not be as bleak as that suggests. Judged by the ratio of tangible equity to total assets – a much more relevant measure of capital strength for equity investors since it ignores bogus regulatory risk weightings on bank assets -- Irish banks look comparatively healthy with 4.1% for Anglo Irish and 4.4% for Allied Irish. In contrast, the European average is just 2.7%. Armed with fresh capital, that may offer Irish banks more scope for future growth.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Irish government now getting close to finalizing a recapitalization plan for the country's banks:

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lenihan-to-sanction-huge-bank-rescue-plan-1544122.html
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 12:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look for some capital injection going into the Irish banks sometime in the next few weeks. Also note that the market is now valuing the Irish business of Allied Irish at less than zero:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/17/17177/irelands-systemic-banking-problem/
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Irish jobless at 11-year high.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"....Ireland's decision to guarantee all deposits in Irish banks infuriated Britain, sucking money away from British banks where the guarantee is more limited, and drew fire from Brussels.

Asked about the Irish move, EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes said: "I make a plea to national governments today not to act unilaterally but to continue the practice of involving the Commission. It is a must."
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

...A good thing too. Yesterday's market down 12.5%.
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