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The Myth of the Rational Market
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Author The Myth of the Rational Market
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:20 am    Post subject: The Myth of the Rational Market Reply with quote

Counting it up is not adding it up:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124363560053267777.html

http://www.sce.cornell.edu/sce/altschuler/pdf/altschuler_review_20090601_146.pdf


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJHy37voS3g8

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/05/AR2009060502053.html

Quote:
The illustrative joke was of two economists who spot a $10 bill on the ground. One stoops to pick it up, whereupon the other interjects, "Don't. If it were really $10, it wouldn't be there anymore."


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/08bc21d8-5395-11de-be08-00144feabdc0.html

Quote:
Joseph Stiglitz, now famous as a critic of globalisation, published a proof that the efficient markets hypothesis was logically impossible because otherwise it would be irrational to spend money on research.

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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If govt. would just keep it's hands to itself and let bidzness be bidzness:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/11/business/corporate-bribery-war-has-hits-and-a-few-misses.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
Quote:

“You are talking about millions of dollars going to dictators who are selling their national patrimony in countries where you cannot even get clean water. Bribery is endemic to the human condition. If it cannot be rooted out, then you need to do something, and the F.C.P.A. is that.”

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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Again, the colonized colonizing the old colonizer:

Quote:
In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, TCL is now required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 29 March 2012, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for CWW in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.


Cable and Wireless, having laid the first underwater cable connecting Bombay 150 years ago is evidently a trusted brand. What is not trusted however, is the market mechanism for takeover bids. This is one area reform from the last war seems to be working.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An all-too rational market:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20120201/BLOG06/120209988/you-knew-the-auto-price-fixing-probe-was-huge-but-not-like-this

The "balance" markets tend towards is oligopoly.
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Listen to the founder of and co-creator of the final word in RE prices stumble and hem and haw and generally struggle to match his 3-6 mo lagging home price index with the reality of RE prices--now...and then!

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vezQG885w4gY.mp3

From the industry that brought you "location, location, location", and "there's never been a better time to own a home".....now we have "the truth."

The "truth" is that this is not a market that you can in any way shape or form "mark" to. There is a gaping bid/ask.....shadow inventory that itself doesn't exist, unwillingness to fall on the market's sword (who'd a'thunk?) by the average housewife. Wall St. this world is not.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

“I am tired of the U.S.,” Yang Tianfu, chief executive officer of Harbin Electric Inc. (HRBN), said in a phone interview. “We just couldn’t communicate with the investors.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-08/chinese-companies-tired-of-wall-street-shift-to-hong-kong-listings-tech.html


A direct measure of culture coming first.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Market most efficient distributer of need? Not when it comes to life and death.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2011/11/21/142571217/shortage-of-adhd-drugs-has-parents-doctors-scrambling

Govt., far from being the problem here, provides a standard we rarely get in markets, the actual supply-demand equation. This is not the exception either.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Permabull CNBC:

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/11/just-spell-my-ticker-right.html?
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2011 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MF Global portfolio being "marked-to-market" today.

Bloodsport: a market far older, and far more primitive.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2011 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bloomberg had the 5 year CDS on China at 161.7 bps and the 5 year CDS on Colombia at 155.9 bps Tuesday afternoon.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2011 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of lost decades and large caps:

http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/stocks/dead-stocks-walking-1318003869746/?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest&zone=intromessage

Unremarked, and not to be underestimated, is the link with these featured stocks and their celebrity cycle. No-one will EVER be as mad for Microsoft...or Cisco, or WalMart again after they owned the markets in their time. IBM is so old that it may prove the exception to the rule. Certainly part of the loss of Retail this generation.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mothballing refiners at $100 Brent!

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/energy-sector-energy-economy-refineries-refinery/10/4/2011/id/37161
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The myth of the rational Markit:

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/stanton/papers/pdf/indices.pdf
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two weeks ago the market was apoplectic about inflation and FED inaction. Now it's all where is QEIII. And, you know what?....the market is always right Twisted Evil
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 4:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's some things in this billionaire's boy (ex-wife's) club that doesn include private property--just like a BRIC investment!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/major-league-baseball-to-take-over-operation-of-l-a-dodgers.html
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everything has its price--but does that mean everything can be bought???

http://www.economist.com/node/18560525?story_id=18560525

Quote:
....Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?

China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion....

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