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The Obama Stimulus
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Author The Obama Stimulus
HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:49 pm    Post subject: The Obama Stimulus Reply with quote

Greg Mankiw comments on the Obama stimulus plan:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/01/obamas-multipliers.html

FYI, any posts that discusses politics or any conjectures without sufficient data backing will be deleted.
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Author The Obama Stimulus Replies
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was always here but SBA loans are getting some juice. At 10% this will probably be another money-maker for US. We are a long long way from dropping money from a helicopter.



http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-1016-sba-microloans-20101016,0,6343162.story
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest stimulus plan passed. More plans on the way to provide funding to cash-strapped state and local governments:

Quote:
Senate passes $149 bln for jobless aid, tax breaks

The Senate on Wednesday passed a $149 billion package of jobless aid and tax breaks, as Democrats continued efforts to lower the 9.7 percent unemployment rate before congressional elections in November.

The measure, approved by a vote of 62 to 36, now heads to the House of Representatives, where many Democrats have pushed for more aggressive job-creation measures in the face of the worst U.S. economic downturn since the 1930s.

Democrats say job creation is their top priority this year as they head into an election season that could possibly cost them control of Congress.

Both chambers have now passed two job-creation bills, but they have yet to resolve their differences and finish legislation that President Barack Obama can sign into law.

Democrats passed an $863 billion stimulus measure last year to battle the recession. That effort created up to 2.1 million jobs, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, but the high price tag has prompted a growing voter backlash.

The bill passed on Thursday by the Senate largely continues existing government policies. Jobless workers would see their unemployment benefits and healthcare subsidies extended to the end of 2010, while businesses would once again benefit from $25 billion worth of tax breaks that expired at the end of 2009.

The bill's $149 billion in new spending is partly offset by $37 billion in revenue raised by closing tax loopholes.

That could conflict with President Barack Obama's plans to use the new revenue to help pay for his proposed healthcare overhaul.

HELP FOR STATES

Cash-strapped states would get $25 billion to help cover their portion of the Medicaid government-run healthcare program for the poor.

More help could be on the way for states, which face yawning budget deficits and, unlike the federal government, must balance their budgets each year.

Representative George Miller, a senior House Democrat, introduced a bill on Wednesday that would give state and local governments an additional $98.5 billion to help avoid layoffs of teachers, police officers and other public employees.

Other House Democrats say Congress should boost transportation spending to put more construction workers back to work.

Both the House and the Senate have approved a $13 billion payroll tax cut for businesses that hire unemployed workers, but the Senate needs to approve the measure again before Obama can sign it into law.

White House economic adviser Christina Romer said on Tuesday that a similar hiring credit proposed by Obama would generate 250,000 jobs at a cost of $13 billion.

The U.S. economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since entering the recession in December 2007, though the pace of job loss has slowed since the recovery began in the second half of last year.

More than forty percent of unemployed Americans have been out of work for at least six months, the usual cutoff for jobless benefits. Congress extended the program to cover those out of work for nearly two years in some high-unemployment areas, but millions could still exhaust their benefits starting next month without a further extensions.

Unemployment aid does not directly create jobs, but economists say it is one of the most cost-effective ways to stimulate the economy because recipients spend the money quickly.

But it is not cheap. Extending benefits through the end of the year would cost $70 billion. Many Republicans voted against the measure, arguing that spending in other areas should be cut to cover all of its costs.

Republicans also say job creation has been hampered by a climate of uncertainty due to as-yet-unfinished Democratic initiatives like the effort to overhaul the healthcare system.
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diesel
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ven wrote:
Quote:
Offer a job to anyone who applies...


How do you pay for that?


Simple, a government using fiat money has pricing power that it may not understand. Once the government levies a tax, the private sector needs the government's money so it can pay the tax. The conventional understanding that the government must tax so it can get money to spend does not apply to a fiat currency. Because the private sector needs the government's money to meet its tax obligations, the government can literally name its price for the money it spends. In a market economy it is only necessary to define one price and let the market establish the rest. For this example I am proposing to set the price of the supplementary government workers.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some call it the Post Office.

--"a cause to hope but not celebrate."
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 5:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Offer a job to anyone who applies...


How do you pay for that?
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All this talk about stimulus after stimulus is getting old. The US should just get on with it show some leadership and let the deficit float.

After they do that they could offer a job to anyone who applies, at a fixed rate of pay. This would result in full employment, by definition. It would also eliminate the need for such legislation as unemployment compensation and a minimum wage.

The new class of government employees, which we could call supplementary, would function as an automatic stabilizer, the way unemployment currently does. A strong economy with rising labor costs would result in supplementary employees leaving their government jobs, as the private sector lures them with higher wages. (The government must allow this to happen, and not increases wages to compete.) This reduction of government expenditures is a contractionary fiscal bias. If the economy slows, and workers are laid off from the private sector, they will immediately assume supplementary government employment. The resulting increase in government expenditures is an expansionary bias. As long as the government does not change the supplementary wage, it becomes the defining factor for the currency- the price around which free market prices in the private sector evolve.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Wind Energy Jobs not Blowing Anyone Away"

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-green-jobs2-2010feb02,0,6156904.story


The grid gets in the way....again. Hard to believe we're here now, after where we were then.

Gotta luv the compound lie here:

Quote:
"The inconvenient truth for America's economic recovery is that China's Communist Party has cultivated a more favorable, predictable and hospitable market for private investments in clean-energy technology and energy infrastructure than the federal government of the United States," said Alexander "Andy" Karsner, a fellow at the Council on Competitiveness.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
"It's possible that Obama will run for re-election with fewer people working than when he took office," Shapiro warned.


The politics of economics:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-obama-econ25-2010jan25,0,1243992.story
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom Graff
GSE news and market impact
12/29/2009 7:57 AM EST


Quote:
Yesterday the Treasury announced it would be pledging additional capital and a more generous credit line to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Perhaps more important was that the Treasury also altered the requirement that the GSEs shrink their retained portfolio. An absolute cap of $900 billion is effective immediately, with the cap declining by 10% per year starting in 2011.

The big positive here is for Agency MBS, because this frees up Fannie and Freddie to increase their purchases. Both have a retained portfolio of around $760 billion currently. This could (and is probably designed to) cushion the blow of the Fed ending its MBS purchase program.

I am still very negative on MBS spreads in 2010, as my thesis was never based solely on Fed support. But I would say this news probably eliminates any possibility of 7-8% mortgage rates that many have feared.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2009 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rural broadband out of the gate:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10417294-38.html
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2009 1:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "Jobs for Main Street Act of 2010" a.k.a. "Stimulus II" needs to go through in order to prevent a deeper financial calamity in California:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/1385600.html

Quote:
WASHINGTON -- Washington soon could come to the aid of California, New York and other cash-strapped states that face the need to raise taxes or cut spending again next year to balance their books.

The House of Representatives took the first step late Wednesday, passing a $75 billion jobs bill that would help states pay for infrastructure projects and prevent more public employees from being laid off.

Some are calling it "stimulus II," and a sequel would be good news for the 35 states that face budget gaps totaling $31.5 billion by the middle of next year. California is projecting the largest shortfall, at $6.3 billion, followed by Illinois and New York, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a research center in Washington.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2009 1:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The main provisions of the "Jobs for Main Street Act of 2010":
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
House narrowly approves Democratic jobs plan
By ANDREW TAYLOR (AP) – 7 hours ago

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama's Democratic allies in the House Wednesday muscled through a year-end plan to create jobs, mixing about $50 billion for public works projects with another almost $50 billion for cash-strapped state and local governments.

The unemployed would get continued benefits. But conspicuously absent from the plan were Obama's recently announced initiatives to give Social Security recipients $250 payments, a tax credit for small businesses that create jobs and a program awarding tax credits to people who make their homes more energy efficient.

Not a single Republican voted for the plan, which passed on a 217-212 vote after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., worked the floor for an hour before it passed. The measure now goes to the Senate, which won't consider the measure until next year and which generally has a smaller appetite for such deficit-financed economic stimulus measures.

Given increasing anxiety among Democrats over massive budget deficits and the party's poor marks with voters for its free-spending ways, the measure could face a tough road. Almost 40 Democrats voted against the plan, mostly moderates and junior members elected from swing districts.

According to documents released by Democrats, the measure would cost $154 billion. But there's also another $20 billion from the federal treasury to keep the highway trust fund afloat.

The measure blends a familiar mix of money for highway, transit and water projects and aid to help communities retain teachers and firefighters. There's also $41 billion for a six-month extension of more generous unemployment benefits and $12 billion to renew health insurance subsidies.

Many of the ideas are renewals of programs started in February's $787 billion economic stimulus bill, which has earned mixed reviews from the public as unemployment has hit 10 percent.

The idea behind the "Jobs for Main Street Act" was to enact fast-acting steps that would quickly boost employment. The bill also reflects concerns among rank-and-file Democrats that the original stimulus measure didn't have enough money for infrastructure projects.

But infrastructure spending is notoriously slow to spend out as projects need to be planned and can require a lengthy contracting process. Most of the so-called shovel ready projects have already been funded.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, less than half of the $39 billion in the measure for transportation and housing projects would be spent over the next decade, with just $1.7 billion being spent through next September.

Democrats claimed $75 billion of the measure is "paid for" with unused money from the Wall St. bailout. Republicans countered that the bill is really financed with red ink since the bailout money would otherwise revert to the Treasury to lower the deficit.

Republicans branded the new bill "Son of Stimulus" and were withering in their assessments.

"More spending, more debt. Same lousy policies that haven't produced jobs all year," said House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Democrats also say that economists largely credit the earlier stimulus measure for the fledgling economic recovery and the improving unemployment picture.

"The situation is worse than we thought and getting better more slowly than we hoped but it's clearly getting better," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass.

Democrats said that the measure would prevent a double-dip recession by giving state and local governments $23 billion to retain teachers and lesser amounts to keep firefighters and police officers. And it would help prevent tax increases by state governments by giving them $23.5 billion for the Medicaid program for the poor and disabled.

Republicans also distributed a chart showing that roughly half the money goes into accounts brimming with cash from the earlier stimulus bill.

"The agencies are awash with money coming through the pipeline," said Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Calif.

But Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., countered that most of the earlier stimulus money has been committed if not actually spent.

The measure also includes money for Amtrak construction, school renovation and job training. There's also $1.1 billion for part-time college jobs, summer employment for low-income teenagers and money for workers in national parks and forests.

The bill also allows very poor people with as little as no income to claim a $1,000-per-child tax credit in what Republicans charged was simply a welfare payment to 16 million poor families.

The bill also would extend federal surface transportation programs through the end of next September.

Democratic leaders had to scramble to find the votes for the measure, which came up right after the House approved a $290 billion increase in the government's ability to borrow. That 218-214 vote reflected unhappiness by moderate Democrats about adding to the nation's red ink.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This aspect of the GDP report,...

Quote:
....Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change....


...will be poo-poo'd all the way into the recovery--then forgotten.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We forget, credit is a two-way street:

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE57560Q20090806
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Late" infrastructure coming right on time:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124942875620406143.html

And, despite the "shovel-ready" propaganda, as planned.
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