The Obama Stimulus

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:49 pm Post subject: The Obama Stimulus

Greg Mankiw comments on the Obama stimulus plan:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/01/obamas-multipliers.html

FYI, any posts that discusses politics or any conjectures without sufficient data backing will be deleted.

goldbug · Junior Poster Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 36

I really think this constant debt expansion is going to hurt us:

http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/banks_create_money.html

I also think stimulus to financial sector is not the answer. We have a major problem. Let the banks go bust, let the healthy ones buy them pennies on the dollar. Reward the prudent, let the loosers go bust. If I were a small bank and did all the right things and did not get myself into trouble I would be upset to see that government is not letting my competition go bust and let me pick up the pieces.

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:50 am Post subject:

More talk of "second" stimulus. While unemployment will now definitely exceed their projections most of the first money has yet to leave the station. This was by plan... and still stands to be a good one.
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HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 7:04 am Post subject:

The last holdout loses his battle:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/06/04/south.carolina.sanford.stimulus/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

HenryTo · Posted: Tue May 26, 2009 7:27 pm Post subject:

The California "anti-stimulus":
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Schwarzenegger details $5.5B more cuts to budget

By SAMANTHA YOUNG, Associated Press Writer Samantha Young, Associated Press Writer – 57 mins ago
SACRAMENTO, Calif. – Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Tuesday proposed eliminating welfare for 500,000 families and terminating health coverage for nearly 1 million children to help close the state's ballooning budget deficit.

The Republican governor's administration released details of $5.5 billion in cuts, a week after state voters defeated special election ballot measures. The new proposals are on top of those previously announced by Schwarzenegger.

Also among the cuts are stops to college fee assistance for thousands of students, fewer vocational training opportunities for state inmates and the elimination of $70 million in funds for the state park system.

The state is trying to close a $21 billion deficit, although the Schwarzenegger administration said Tuesday that its proposed budget for the 2009-10 fiscal year was outdated. The governor's finance team said the deficit now was projected to grow to $24.3 billion through June 2010.

The revised budget now includes borrowing from local governments that will have to be repaid and consolidating state boards and commissions. The administration wants to eliminate a welfare-to-work program that provides more than 500,000 families, saving $1.3 billion but forgoing $4.2 billion in federal matching funds.

Schwarzenegger also seeks to cut health care coverage for nearly 1 million low-income children under the Healthy Families program, saving about $250 million for the year. For the state's students, he wants to phase out a college aid program and reduce $335 million in funding for the University of California and California State University systems.

Schwarzenegger's previously proposed cuts include laying off 5,000 state government employees and cutting billions of dollars from K-12 schools, potentially shortening the school year by a week. The administration also was expected to announce another $3 billion worth of budget solutions this week.

The governor had warned of "cuts, cuts, cuts" after voters defeated last week's ballot measures.

State Assemblyman Roger Niello, a Republican, said during a joint legislative budget committee hearing that the state was "being driven by an economy that has absolutely collapsed. This is nobody's vision of what we wanted to be, where we're seeing revenue drops of unprecedented proportions."

The governor has said he would not support further tax hikes after agreeing to $12.8 billion in higher sales, personal income and vehicle taxes earlier this year. He said Tuesday that "if we don't make those cuts, I think we will face catastrophic consequences because the state would simply run out of money and get insolvent, which we cannot afford to do."

State Republicans also said they were not willing to raise taxes.

But State Assemblywoman Noreen Evans, the budget committee chairwoman, said she wants lawmakers to consider raising revenue rather than cutting so deeply into state programs.

"I will look under every rock and every leaf so that we can make sure women and children are fed and their medical needs are taken care of," Evans said.

The state Legislature's constitutional deadline to approve a budget and send it to the governor was June 15, but Evans said lawmakers were unlikely to meet it.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 26, 2009 10:31 am Post subject:

CC moving:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8v1JKA2X9ag

This is what the december rally was all about...and why the market is most always ahead of or well behind the game. In this case it's both.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:30 am Post subject:

NY Times sits with Obama in a conversation re: financial sector regulations, education, and healthcare reforms. A must-read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/magazine/03Obama-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 1:28 am Post subject:

Obama pledges to double the amount of public funding of scientific research - all the way back to the Kennedy era (at 3% of GDP):

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1eab70a8-3364-11de-8f1b-00144feabdc0.html

This is definitely a much-needed move.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:54 am Post subject:

Christina Romer, is now the head of the Council of Economic Advisers.

For all the emphasis on credit (Bernanke, Buffett, etc) we need an economy, govt. sponsored or othewise, as much as anything now. This from Mauldin's latest, quoting Romer's study of the Depression:

Lesson 4 – Financial recovery and real recovery go hand in hand

Romer points out the inseparable nature of the real and financial recoveries. This meshes with our analysis that the banks aren't really the problem in a debt-deflation environment, rather they are a symptom of the problem. The current policy in the US seems to be aimed at "fixing the financial system", witness Bernanke's recent comments "Recovery is not going to happen until the financial markets and the banks are stabilized". This appears to be a misperception, as, Romer notes "Strengthening the real economy improved the health of the financial system. Bank profits moved from large and negative in 1933 to large and positive in 1935, and remained high through the end of the Depression".

Investors seem to be rather excited about banks posting profits at the moment. Frankly, if a bank didn't post a profit in this environment it should be shot out of kindness. The environment for profitability from banks has rarely been better, but that doesn't make them solvent. If you were starting a business today, then setting up a bank would be a very attractive option. However, history - as represented by the balance sheet - cannot simply be ignored when it is inconvenient. As John Hussman noted "The excitement of investors last week about Citigroup posting an operating profit in the first two months of the year simply indicates that investors may not fully understand the term "operating profit." Citigroup could burst into flames while Vikram Pandit sells lemonade in the parking lot, and Citi would still post an operating profit. Operating profits exclude what happens on the balance sheet."

BTW Citi is NOT selling lemonade--but something as profitable, the yield-curve.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:38 pm Post subject:

Who says govt. and markets don't mix?

http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/ci_11874886?source=rss_viewed
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 9:59 am Post subject:

Some details on the $50 million boost in funding to the National Endowment of the Arts:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/03/04/alexander.arts/index.html

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 6:21 am Post subject:

The prez puts out a buy:

"You know, it bobs up and down," he said, comparing stock market movements to daily tracking polls during political campaigns. "The banking system has been dealt a heavy blow," he added. "There are a lot of losses that are working their way through the system. And it's not surprising that the market is hurting as a consequence."

Sounding ever more like an analyst, he said that "profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it."

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D96MRD800.htm
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:06 am Post subject:

There gold in them thar bills:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1g5k07VNpDY&refer=home
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:57 pm Post subject:

Act 3: the Keynes you didn't want to know.

http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1281

Act 1: How deep in the hold economics can be in the good ship of state.
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diesel · Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 6:54 pm Post subject:

This is not a stimulus in any normal understanding of the word, of the $820 billion that was approved and voted on, only 20% will be spent in 2009 and only 40% in 2010. That leaves 40% to be spent in 2011 or later.
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:23 am Post subject:

For a man with the most natural smile he has certainly taken on Lincoln's mirth:

http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13110024
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