The Olympics

[rffrydr]

The Summer Olympics in Beijing are scheduled to open on 8/8/08 at 8:08:08 p.m
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Spielberg quits:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c0c024ac-d9d7-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

One Copyright, One Dream:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0d6da94-cf4f-11dc-854a-0000779fd2ac.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Turn the grey sky blue:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/29/world/asia/29china.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

First Pride; then History (of commerce):

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSSHA19774920071222
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Some worries about "pro-cyclical" nature of the Games:


Inflated by the Olympic spirit

http://economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8776275

Mar 1st 2007 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
An Olympics-fuelled boom is not all good news—and is especially hard on those looking for somewhere to live in China's capital
Imagine China


THE transformation of China's capital over the past few years has been astonishing enough. This year the effect will be giddying. Due for completion are: a dozen Olympic sports centres; a new cross-city underground railway; a host of office towers; a massive airport terminal; and, after some delay and much criticism, a colossal French-designed egg-shaped theatre in the city centre. Amid an Olympics-fuelled frenzy, Beijing's economy is booming and its house prices soaring. Many fear their return to earth will be bumpy.

Olympic cities usually experience an economic surge before the games. And with under 18 months to go before the games open in Beijing, China's economy as a whole is growing nearly as fast as Beijing's: 10.7% last year compared with the capital's 12% (its eighth consecutive year in double digits). Central-government leaders worry that the pace could be reckless, but are loth to apply the brakes hard.


At its fortnight-long annual session beginning on March 5th, China's largely rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress (NPC), will endorse the leadership's efforts to restrain investment and cool property markets. It will also, according to the Chinese press, approve a target for slower economic growth this year, of around 8%. But few expect much change. Last year's target, too, was 8%. Chinese leaders deliberately err on the low side to deter local governments from spending with even gayer abandon. Similarly, Beijing's target for GDP growth in 2007 is, like last year's, a modest 9%.

For Chinese leaders, however, Beijing's boom is also a worry. Lower-income residents complain with increasing bitterness about house prices. In January the property-price index in Beijing rose by 9.9% compared with the same month in 2006. This was the second-highest rate among 70 cities surveyed. And prices for many residential properties are growing far faster than these figures suggest.

At the NPC session and a five-yearly Communist Party congress due in the autumn, leaders will be trying to stress how much in sympathy they are with the suffering of ordinary citizens. For the past two years, the central government has introduced a series of measures aimed at cooling property markets in Beijing and elsewhere. These have included new taxes on property deals and higher mortgage downpayments. Last month new restrictions were imposed on property purchases by foreigners. In Shanghai, these moves have achieved some success (diverting speculative money to the bubbling stockmarket), but not in Beijing. Last year property development still accounted for more than half of all investment in the capital (see chart).


Speculators are betting that property prices will benefit from the tightness of land supply and the continued slow appreciation of China's currency, the yuan, which should bolster the value of yuan-denominated assets. Moreover, in order to keep the city clear of unsightly cranes and dust-billowing building sites during the games, Beijing has been discouraging new construction projects. This has reduced the expected supply of properties and helped to drive up prices. Last year the total floor space of new housing projects was nearly 6% less than in 2005. For poorer residents the outlook was particularly grim. The floor area of newly launched low-cost housing projects was down by nearly 57%.

According to press reports this week, the central government recently called a special meeting to discuss ways to tame Beijing's property market. Among its suggestions was an increase in the housing supply. In January Beijing's mayor, Wang Qishan, announced plans to boost the construction of affordable housing. It is not clear, however, how soon this will come on the market or whether there will be enough to affect prices. To city governments, high prices mean greater tax revenue, a prize not readily forsaken.

Officials estimate that the Olympics have been contributing more than two percentage points to Beijing's annual growth since 2003. After the games, they insist, the city's new infrastructure and additional glamour (including the egg-shaped theatre, which hopes to attract international stars) will help keep the economy rolling. The flow of investment will be sustained, they say, by further infrastructure development, and by the pent-up demand for property, which will be supported by a continuing large influx of migrants from the countryside.

But some observers are worried. In December's edition of China National Conditions and Strength, a monthly magazine, two Beijing academics, Liu Qiyun and Wang Junping, said the end of the Olympics would coincide with a cyclical downturn in China's economy, exacerbating the risk of a post-Olympics slump in the capital. Beijing's Olympics-related spending of around $35 billion, they calculated, would make up more than 43% of the total for all the games, including Beijing's, since Montreal's in 1976. This could make the post-Olympics investment downturn all the more pronounced—especially if the speculators are busy bailing out.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

It's being celebrated as such and you know what they say about perception. And Fire is supposed to imply restraint.

Last Pig year did bring unprecedented heat wave in summer. If the La Nina event currently forming shows up--CRB watch out.

Also from the above Times article:

IBM launched the personal computer system in a Pig year (1983) and the transistor and self-starter motor were also invented in Pig years: 2007 will hold more major inventions.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Oops, I think it is supposed to be the fire pig:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_(zodiac)

Not to be confused with the roasted pig.

I read another article re: how the golden pig discussion didn't hold up since no-one could find any records about having celebrated one 600 years ago.

[rffrydr]

It's the Fire Pig. No matter, still lucky and still alot of babies coming on. Some say "Gold" is a marketing "ploy":

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/china/article1390527.ece
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

It's a sixty-year event (12X5) and I've heard that it's NOT golden, but wooden--just everyone jumped on the bandwagon:

http://dailynightly.msnbc.com/2007/02/year_of_the_gol.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Yes, here it is: http://www.olympic.org/uk/games/beijing/index_uk.asp

Given that this is also the year of the "Golden Pig" (a 600-year event) - a year of good fortune - and given that China is finally making it into the big leagues in the eyes of many Mainland and overseas Chinese, we could have the mother of all bubbles in the Chinese stock and real estate markets over the next 18 months.

March 1973 P/E of Hang Seng: 73

December 1989 P/E of Nikkei: 66

March 2000 P/E of NASDAQ 100: >100

August 2008 P/E of Shanghai Stock Exchange: ? (it is currently at 25)