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The Paradox of Thrift
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Author The Paradox of Thrift
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 22, 2009 11:07 pm    Post subject: The Paradox of Thrift Reply with quote

What's bad for the goose is good for the gander:



[img]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_qPOGUD58m4Q/Sfl7H99PP7I/AAAAAAAAASM/ErFB8_CdrWc/s400/HY+spread+vs+RFFR.bmp
[/img]

And that's how the stock market goes from "reflexivity" to causation. It becomes it's own cause.



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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 6:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Echoes of 2008 as eurobanks go flush with bond issuance--with concomitant CDS writes on ECB supported one-way bets. Statist armwringing, if not simple history, will preserve lending. Now we just need a little un-german virtue, confidence:

Quote:
Bond bonanza for European companies

European corporate bond sales have surged back into life, as companies nervous about securing funding from lending-constrained banks sold billions of euros worth of bonds that were eagerly snapped up by investors.

Europe saw $21bn of non-financial corporate bond sales this week, according to Dealogic, of which half was in euros. This week’s issues include Volkswagen’s €2.25bn bond, Vivendi’s €1.25bn sale and Carrefour’s €500m offering. In total, there has been almost €50bn of European debt sales this week, Dealogic estimates, helped by unexpectedly strong eurozone government bond auctions and bank debt sales. The previous week the total was €36.5bn.

Last week was also a strong one for corporate debt sales in Europe, with carmakers particularly active. Most notable was BMW, which attracted €7bn of orders for its €2.5bn of three- and seven-year bonds..

In all currencies the sums raised in Europe so far this year has climbed to $150bn.

Even companies in the eurozone’s embattled periphery were able to tap markets. Repsol, the Spanish oil and gas company, sold a €750m bond earlier this week, the first southern European company to issue euro-denominated bonds since October.

The bond bonanza has helped companies raise capital for upcoming debt repayments, and will ease some of the concerns that Europe will start to see a renewed rash of corporate failures this year.

Sentiment has mainly been boosted by the European Central Bank’s €489bn three-year loans to eurozone banks in late December, some of which appears to be filtering back into
sovereign and corporate bond markets. “Some banks are clearly putting the [ECB] money back into the market,” said Jonathan Brown, head of European bond syndicate at Barclays Capital.

“The lack of issuance late last year also meant that investors’ cash balances have built up, and are now being deployed,” Mr Brown added.

The ECB’s action to help banks had “certainly prevented what could have been a major funding constraint” and resulted in some unsecured bank bond markets reopening, Mario Draghi, the central bank’s president, said on Thursday. The new issuance market has also been helped by the poor liquidity in the secondary market, bankers said.

“If you want to put money to work you will move the secondary market, but you can still pick up big positions in any new deals that come,” Mr Brown said.

Still, investors remain nervous that the eurozone crisis may flare back up, shutting markets as quickly and as decisively as they opened this year.

Markets received a cold shower after news filtered through that Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, was about to downgrade several eurozone countries. After a strong start to the day, stock markets slumped and bond yields climbed.

Markit’s index of credit default swaps, a form of default insurance, on highly rated European corporate debt fell to as low as 169 basis points on Friday, the lowest since October, before edging up to 173bp by late afternoon in London.

“We’re not out of the woods yet,” another banker warned.

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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HOG yes; ELY no:

Double Bogey
By Tim Melvin | Jan 25, 2012 | 9:30 AM EST

Quote:
Callaway Gold (ELY) had another tough quarter. The company announced a wider loss as sales fell year over year again. Although management said that cost cutting programs are on track and margins should improve this year ELY is still struggling. The consumer has not returned to the higher end gold products market yet and until they do the bottom line will suffer. I like the stock as a long term play on the eventual recovery of golf but the increase in long term liabilites and continued losses are a concern.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
....On the complete opposite side of the spectrum of Staples is xxx’s Sporting Goods, which was teed up to have a solid quarter if one reviewed the quarters from Nike, Under Armour, and Columbia Sportswear. With price increases throughout the store and the assortment representing more discretionary purchases than need-based, to print a +4.1% comp and a +16.8% online comp is impressive. The consumer continues to vote: “if we are being forced to pay a higher price for a want, and we have to dip into our savings account to make it happen, that product has to deliver something meaningful on close to a daily basis.”


-RM
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2011 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cruises are up 20%....value in these floating casinos.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, the mighty V8 is suffering.....suffering the embrace of a techy V6:

http://www.torquenews.com/106/ecoboost-technology-proves-popular-ford-f150

The pickup is like church in america, it changes with the times but it's always there.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 6:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This article is framed as a paradox, "subprime selling at at a premium." The paradox here however is the paradox of thrift: the safety of a premium hard asset, the land of sunshine. As caprates push under 7% with one-quarter of the building vacant what we are seeing is money being parked outside of paper. This is fundamentally post-recessionary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/office-prices-in-subprime-s-center-leapfrog-recovery-in-region.html
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the best signs of recovery IMHO....when the restaurant stocks came back. Thrifty families can SAVE money going to the right restaurants at the right time while simultaneously saving themselves precious-if-produductive same. And hires have to be made. Sector with greatest representation above the 200dma.

http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/06/27/good-eatin-stocks-at-the-200-day-moving-average/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/278164-the-restaurant-stock-bubble-of-2011-could-end-badly



(note the Alt Energy category scraping at the bottom while crude cruises along at $100)
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PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2011 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This author just has no vision: of course this is a positive indicator.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42916288
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Massage goes minimal...and going stronger than ever:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-affordable-massage-20110302,0,6278879.story
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 13, 2010 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Value for quality" as wine sales resist recession:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1694065079&play=1
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 11, 2010 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buy the 50" set....and watch with an antenna for free. Despite all the hype on Netflix the cable/telco companies continue to get chipped away at.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/06/business/media/06rabbitears.html?ref=business

Quote:
Some viewers who have decided that they are no longer willing or able to pay for cable or satellite service, including younger ones, are buying antennas and tuning in to a surprising number of free broadcast channels. These often become part of a video diet that includes the fast-growing menu of options available online.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Debit Cards outpace Credit 14% to 7% by Visa's measure in big month's push.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to admit that I was at that outlet mall a couple of times this summer. It's much better than anything we have in L.A.--even in 100-degree weather. Cool
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's always a field around in Texas when you need it. Very Happy
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