The Peridot Capitalist Investment Blog

[HenryTo]

Was just wondering if anyone has read this blog on a consistent basis?

http://www.peridotcapital.blogspot.com/

If so, what do you think of this guy's analysis?

[nodoodahs]

After a bit of a run up, CPN is back to where it was when we last talked - $3.33.

They posted a larger loss than expected.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050803/earns_calpine.html?.v=1

I haven't downloaded their new information but still think bankruptcy is an option.

Oddly enough, CPN got another "bull" mention from Cramer earlier this week. I almost went to Peridot's blog and mentioned it as a negative factor ... but I restrained myself.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

Our friend at Peridot is convinced the restructuring at Calpine has put their issues with debt behind them.

Likewise, so is Cramer! CPN was a "bull" mention on the lightning round yesterday.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

Spent some time reviewing. Overall the analysis seems as reasonable as most, more than some. The first item I reviewed, I had a disagreement with, but reading further I found more that I either (1) agreed with or (2) disagreed with but he had a well-formed opinion and argument for, which I respect.

The disagreement I had was over the Calpine/contrarian pick. He stated bankruptcy was not a risk IHO and that he had not hedged his position for the possibility. I would think bankruptcy was a real possibility here, based on the growth of current liabilities, persistent high negative free cash flow, net issuance of debt in each of the last five years, and ratio of interest payments to operating cash flow. I posted as much (I'm not shy). I wouldn't be caught dead buying or shorting this stock. As heavily shorted as it is, one could easily get killed in the squeeze.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.