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The "R" in BRICs |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon May 21, 2007 7:44 am Post subject: The "R" in BRICs |
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Amidst various signs of cooling and excess ($4billion for Yukos office building) this convertilble shows powers-that-be (in Russia what's always important) see limits:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18724899/
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rffrydr
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Odysseus
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| Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:03 pm Post subject: |
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GREAT historical sidebar!
All the Czars after Peter The Great were essentially German. In some circles, Peter The Great is considered an AntiChrist.
The Russian Czars thereafter invited various protest-ant groups and Jews to immigrate to Russia. The true Slavic peoples resented this affront to Othodoxy and made it very difficult for these heretics. Most, except the Jews went West to greener pastures. Jews insulated themselves in ghettos and truely believed that they were secure. Not so, unfortunately. Not then, not now.
I had many Mennonite friends from Kansas. Less severe than the Amish but still GREAT stewards of the land. There was a company, Salina I think, Hesston Mfg that made a bailer called the 'Stackhand.' It was a haybailer that thatched the top of the bail to allow rainwater to sluff off over the sides and reduced spoilage.
Russia is still under the spell of the West. We are the only game in town. They will mature over coming generations and the next civilization might emerge. I can predict this because by then, I will be dead...
So, Bush retires to his Paraguay compound and hires Mennonites increase his Ag yields? Could happen!
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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The kin on my dad's side were German Mennonites who immigrated from Russia ... from what is currently Poland to what is currently Ukraine, to what is currently the U.S. midwest plains states, with more than a few going to Canada. Our branch from Molotschna to Nebraska.
You can blame them for turning those places into grain baskets. Especially winter wheat to Kansas.
The "cousins" are doing a similar job in Paraguay now, their provinces produce more beef and milk than the rest of the country combined.
[end of historical sidebar]
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Odysseus
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| Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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Panerin is a bore and a moron. The old guard acadamitions used to have reasonably high Party standing. Now the old pickle brained gouts are merely tolerated.
Except for a very few, the saying in Russia is "never trust a professer over 50."
I was very good friends with a very high Ag minister who retired (or was retired) in 1992. He accompanied Kruschev on his tour of the U.S. when the Russians 'discovered' corn on the cob.' This guy was no dummy but he had to play the Party game to advance his position. He told me that Russia was a net importer of food even when Ukraine was part of the empire (last year they were a net exporter, I think for the first time since 1914). The poor guy spent his whole career lobying to grow rapeseed for chickens. Russia has much of Canada's climate but he was never listened too. Before they started growing corn, the collectives would mix wheat with saw dust for feed.
The money from the commodity boom went to their collective heads. I'm sure by now that they all have new roofs on their Dachas. They will probably go back to drinking kvas instead of imported beer until the commodities boom returns in a few quarters.
Regards
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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I think that Russian should spend some time at Census dot gov looking at the demographics before he talks about the proposed regional layout again.
One needs far more obvious, racially-charged economic differences (see Bolivia for an example, where colonialism, race, economics, and control of natural resources combine), or far more racial/religious hatred (Iraq, Ireland, Russia/Georgia/Chechnya, the actual Balkans, for examples) before tensions escalate to the point that desire for a split reaches critical mass. One also needs for those groups with differences to be relatively equal in power, as well, otherwise the weaker group just gets exterminated ... too many historical examples to list ...
A sizeable portion of the U.S. population starved to death in the 1930s, before the U.S. $$ was the world's reserve currency, before the U.S. was a superpower, or a regulator of world markets, at a time when race relations were arguably worse than now and when income/wealth differentials probably were worse, too. No breakup then.
Not that race relations are all that good today in the U.S. Differentials between rich and poor are still high, but the U.S. poor live like the richest 1% of the world's poorest 90%. For all the flooding in Katrina, it's not as if there were communities of dozens of thousands of agricultural workers sleeping in makeshift tents in the middle of rice fields that got washed away by the cyclone, eh? OUR poor have air conditioning, electronic benefit cards, and Cable TV. Hard to work a revolution out of that!
Bottom line is that conditions in the U.S. are nowhere near where they'd need to be for a breakup, and it's not bloody likely they'll ever get there in our lifetimes.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:22 am Post subject: |
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...And the view from Russia:
| Quote: | RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA
Tue Nov 25 2008 09:04:22 ET
A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
Developing... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
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Putin preps for retake of Presidency:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=almi_GBAkMqc&refer=home
More than a few are seeing Weimar reborn: the trashing of Russia c'92, the purges, the inflation, the strong hand, the "sudetenland" reach, the....?
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Code: | Rouble rethink
Published: November 16 2008 18:10 | Last updated: November 16 2008
Three weeks ago, prime minister Vladimir Putin told Russians that exchanging roubles for dollars was a “dubious” investment. By last week, officials were U-turning, signalling they were ready to see the rouble “depreciate” gently. Russia broadened the trading band with the dollar/euro basket, allowing the rouble to depreciate by 1 per cent. Russia is right to recognise that, in a lower oil price world and with capital outflows of $50bn in October alone, it could fritter away even its relatively copious currency reserves by defending an overvalued rouble. Reserves thinned from $598bn in August to $475bn on November 7. But there are worrying questions about its chosen route.
Ideally, Russia would have devalued by, say, 10 per cent, then defended this more realistic line in the sand – or simply chosen to let the rouble float. But with Russians associating “devaluation” with the 1998 financial crisis that smashed their savings, that would be hugely risky. It would have huge political costs; the rouble’s rehabilitation has symbolised Russia’s resurgence. At worst, Russians would decide their leaders had duped them again and dump roubles, fearing the rate would plunge further.
Instead, Russia has apparently plumped for a step-by-step approach, gradually broadening the trading band, to avoid panic. But this has pitfalls, too. It could tempt traders to launch further speculative attacks and require billions of dollars to defend each new, lower rate.
The central bank reportedly spent $16bn last week in spite of the depreciation. Jumpy Russians might still jettison roubles. Worst of all, Russia might make several small depreciations but find a bigger devaluation is still required in a few months – when it will have burned through a lot more reserves.
Its best hope may be an unpredictable, irregular series of steps that introduce some two-way volatility to discourage traders from short positions. Sadly, the authorities’ hamfisted performance to date inspires little confidence that they can pull off this high-wire balancing act. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2008 8:31 am Post subject: |
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Considering these bank's debt is denominated in dollars we now see the pincer in action....govt. guarantee or no.
| Quote: | Russia, the banks and the rouble
Published: October 22 2008 09:31 | Last updated: October 22 2008 22:57
These are jittery days for Russians. Four tottering banks have been rescued by state companies in the past month. With memories fresh of several savings wipe-outs since 1991, some edgy Russians have reportedly been shifting funds from smaller banks to state-controlled Sberbank and VTB – or swapping roubles into dollars. The Russian currency has slipped from 23.14 against the greenback in July to 26.92 on Wednesday, a two-year low.
To borrow from Franklin D. Roosevelt, Russians have little to fear but fear itself. With $530bn of foreign exchange reserves, it is incomparably better placed than when crisis last struck in 1998. The central bank has signalled it will save any of Russia’s top 100 banks – which do more than 90 per cent of banking business – and the authorities’ near-$200bn financial and corporate support package gives it firepower. But it cannot afford to bail out lots of smaller institutions among Russia’s 1,100 bank licence-holders. In fact, the financial squeeze gives the authorities a long-awaited opportunity for a cull of these opaque and difficult-to-regulate banking midgets. But managing that is tricky; news of failing banks, even tiny ones, risks propelling nervous Russians en masse to their bankomaty.
Managing the rouble poses a similar challenge. The currency’s recovery has symbolised Russia’s Putin-era regeneration. Spending billions of dollars in recent weeks, the central bank has kept it within its target corridor against a dollar/euro basket. But Russia has burned through $70bn of reserves since August and cannot go on at this rate: crude prices are now below the $70 a barrel at which the 2009 budget balances. There is a case for a weaker rouble, to help struggling manufacturers. For now, fearing a run on the currency, officials stress they have no plans for devaluation.
Meanwhile, much of corporate Russia powers on. Gazprom on Wednesday raised quarterly profits 32 per cent to $10.8bn but it trades at only 2.5 times forecast 2009 earnings. Even at giveaway prices, however, the broader uncertainties still leave most investors bearish on the bear. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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As above we're at 138 Euro; $75 crude on the way and alerady we have "effects":
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122303732369702041.html
| Quote: | | On Friday, Magna International Inc. said Mr. Deripaska had ceded his minority stake in the Canadian auto-parts maker, news later confirmed by Mr. Deripaska's holding company. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject: |
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More on Mechel from The Economist: never any pain for Yukos affair. But times are different. BP participated in the Rosfelt listing and now has practically been run out of the country. Yukos was a great buying op. Mechal post rally (if it comes) will be a great sell.
http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11848486
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