 |
|
| Author |
The "R" Word Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:41 am Post subject: |
 |
|
I'd take this, but loosely:
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2012 7:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
The stimulus unwind:
| Quote: | ....The loans to local governments amount to Rmb9.1tn ($1.4tn), or almost a quarter of China’s gross domestic product. Most were issued during the global financial crisis, when Beijing called on its banks to pump out loans to fuel the economy’s recovery.
About 35 per cent of the loans to local governments are due over the next three years, but many of them went to infrastructure investments that have not yet started to generate revenues, raising the risk of defaults.
China’s official debt burden is very low by international standards, at less than 20 per cent of GDP. But this understates the true debt level, since it only counts central government debt and overlooks the local debts as well as other liabilities, such as borrowing by the railway ministry.
By devising a plan to clean up the local government debts, the government has in effect acknowledged that the problem is more serious than the official figures suggest, but it has also taken a step that analysts believe is needed to prevent bigger financial troubles down the road.
To get around regulatory restrictions on government debt, the loans to local authorities were issued to government-backed investment vehicles. The banking regulator has now divided these loans into five different categories, China Business News reported.
The first three are for vehicles that have existing cash flows and have completed or are close to completing their investment projects. These vehicles should be allowed to obtain refinancing, though in some cases the maturity extensions will be a one-off deal.
The fourth are those that do not have sufficient cash flows but whose projects can attract private investment. Arrangements should be made with banks to delay repayments so that investors can be brought on board, the regulator said.
The fifth and final are the most problematic: those that have insufficient cash flows and have little prospect of attracting private investors. Loan rollovers in these cases will not be permitted. Instead, local government will be expected to stand behind the troubled projects to repay the original loans in instalments.... |
--FT
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
They say there's no leverage...but then what's with the ghost mall? GaveKal says they weathered '97 drops of over 50% in investment-grade RE and lived with it. The "great non-leveraging."
I continue to believe there will be a great fall and china will fail from it's OWN excesses. Indeed that may have already have occured. There are so many different chinas. To talk about "national averages" as this article does raises an automatic red flag, but there is more balance here than meets our eyes:
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14587130
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 10:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
· China Premier Jiabao said the economy is showing signs of a turnaround due to government spending on infrastructure. Noted rising loans, retail sales, and growing power output since the middle of February.
· Chinese leaders will provide their economic outlook this week at the annual meeting of the People’s Congress.
· China’s advisory board to the legislature urged better use of the stimulus. Should be used accurately and rationally to avoid duplicating projects.
· Chinese property developers were upgraded by a Chinese broker. Sector raised to overweight. Property sales to rebound as developers keep prices low and a V shaped economy was expected. Property transactions in Shanghai have risen from to 400 to 500 per day in the past six months to 760 last week. China passed a law allowing insurance companies to invest in real estate. Will take effect on October 1st.
· China CLSA Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.1 from 42.2. The index bottomed at 40.9 in November. There has been a bounce, but it is soft.
o Employment was 46.6 v. 45.0
o New orders were 44.2 v. 39.9
o Input prices were 43.7 v. 31.8
o Output prices were 45.6 vs. 42.8
o Backlog was 49.5 v. 46.9
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Funny, in almost the same sentence Jimbo recognizes the crucible that is manufacturing today and looks to "the world's factory" to pull us out:
| Quote: | We're Just Entering This Morass
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/2/2009 6:29 AM EST
You can see it dawn on people one by one. We aren't coming out of this morass, we are just going into it. The president and Congress aren't serious about it. But more importantly, somehow, the companies are stunned by it.
If you want to read about what it is like to recognize that things are falling apart, go read the Textron (TXT - commentary - Cramer's Take) quarter. They actually thought there would be some improvement at year-end. That's not going to happen to a Cessna manufacturer with a commercial finance division of dubious worth. Perhaps there was some hyperbole, but Textron said it was the worst manufacturing time ever!
Black & Decker (BDK - commentary - Cramer's Take)was lean to begin with, but that conference call was one of acceptance of a multi-year downturn. So was the Caterpillar's (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) conference call, which was in contrast to pretty much everything they had hoped would happen.
Even Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take) got pretty much everything wrong. They had wrong prices, wrong materials costs and wrong demand profile for their goods. To be sure, Colgate (CL - commentary - Cramer's Take) whooped 'em. I wonder if even they could disagree with that.
It was just a nasty quarter.
So, we come in and see the futures down big and once again it is dawning on it. We are going lower, perhaps much lower, despite the vicious declines we have seen, even if something "good" happens to the banks, because the earnings estimates are too high and credit has not yet returned to make it so anyone would even think of buying another company.
Random musings: China remains the lone bright spot in the universe. We're asking them to do a lot, but they need to pull us out of here. |
Let's hope the error is compound; and he's back to ringing the bell.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
