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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
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 Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:51 pm Post subject: |
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They say there's no leverage...but then what's with the ghost mall? GaveKal says they weathered '97 drops of over 50% in investment-grade RE and lived with it. The "great non-leveraging."
I continue to believe there will be a great fall and china will fail from it's OWN excesses. Indeed that may have already have occured. There are so many different chinas. To talk about "national averages" as this article does raises an automatic red flag, but there is more balance here than meets our eyes:
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14587130
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 10:08 am Post subject: |
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· China Premier Jiabao said the economy is showing signs of a turnaround due to government spending on infrastructure. Noted rising loans, retail sales, and growing power output since the middle of February.
· Chinese leaders will provide their economic outlook this week at the annual meeting of the People’s Congress.
· China’s advisory board to the legislature urged better use of the stimulus. Should be used accurately and rationally to avoid duplicating projects.
· Chinese property developers were upgraded by a Chinese broker. Sector raised to overweight. Property sales to rebound as developers keep prices low and a V shaped economy was expected. Property transactions in Shanghai have risen from to 400 to 500 per day in the past six months to 760 last week. China passed a law allowing insurance companies to invest in real estate. Will take effect on October 1st.
· China CLSA Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.1 from 42.2. The index bottomed at 40.9 in November. There has been a bounce, but it is soft.
o Employment was 46.6 v. 45.0
o New orders were 44.2 v. 39.9
o Input prices were 43.7 v. 31.8
o Output prices were 45.6 vs. 42.8
o Backlog was 49.5 v. 46.9
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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Funny, in almost the same sentence Jimbo recognizes the crucible that is manufacturing today and looks to "the world's factory" to pull us out:
| Quote: | We're Just Entering This Morass
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/2/2009 6:29 AM EST
You can see it dawn on people one by one. We aren't coming out of this morass, we are just going into it. The president and Congress aren't serious about it. But more importantly, somehow, the companies are stunned by it.
If you want to read about what it is like to recognize that things are falling apart, go read the Textron (TXT - commentary - Cramer's Take) quarter. They actually thought there would be some improvement at year-end. That's not going to happen to a Cessna manufacturer with a commercial finance division of dubious worth. Perhaps there was some hyperbole, but Textron said it was the worst manufacturing time ever!
Black & Decker (BDK - commentary - Cramer's Take)was lean to begin with, but that conference call was one of acceptance of a multi-year downturn. So was the Caterpillar's (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) conference call, which was in contrast to pretty much everything they had hoped would happen.
Even Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take) got pretty much everything wrong. They had wrong prices, wrong materials costs and wrong demand profile for their goods. To be sure, Colgate (CL - commentary - Cramer's Take) whooped 'em. I wonder if even they could disagree with that.
It was just a nasty quarter.
So, we come in and see the futures down big and once again it is dawning on it. We are going lower, perhaps much lower, despite the vicious declines we have seen, even if something "good" happens to the banks, because the earnings estimates are too high and credit has not yet returned to make it so anyone would even think of buying another company.
Random musings: China remains the lone bright spot in the universe. We're asking them to do a lot, but they need to pull us out of here. |
Let's hope the error is compound; and he's back to ringing the bell.
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