The WiMax Future Could be Closer

[HenryTo]

From internetnews.com. WiMax may be closer to us than we think. Long live broadband!
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May 31, 2005
The WiMax Future Could be Closer
By Tim Gray

Mobile devices equipped with WiMax (define) cards could hit the streets earlier than initially anticipated, research published today is predicting -- but the product may be more limited than advocates would like.

At least that's what ABI Research analysts are saying.

As the optional specifications built into the 802.16 standard continue to beef up the sensitivity of receiving equipment, WiMax PC cards and built-in receivers are becoming practical for many devices.

However, this first generation may not be as satisfactory as a fully mobile WiMax solution, but it still could be an advantage over current systems, according to ABI Research senior analyst Philip Solis.

"There may be WiMax PC cards on the market earlier than many observers have expected," Solis said in a statement. "These will result from superior chipsets permitting the use of WiMax in laptops and similar devices in homes and offices within the reach of fixed WiMax transmissions. You will not have full mobility as you will with 802.16e, but you will have some portability."

He also said at least two smaller companies, TeleCIS and Sequans, have been designing their chipsets to implement under-utilized options in the standard.

Laptops, PDAs and other portable devices are considered to be optimal equipment for the first-generation WiMax cards.

"Generally, these optional specifications have not been implemented by the largest vendors of WiMax equipment," Solis said.

What intrigues industry insiders is the potential that WiMax brings to a range of wireless options.

The technology supports high bit rates in uploading and downloading from a base station up to a distance of 30 miles. It is hoped by many researchers that WiMax will yield, among other innovations, high-speed Internet access, VoIP (define), and services to rural areas, commercial spaces and schools at a far cheaper cost.

Some wireless carriers and chipmakers have rushed to set WiMax technical standards, testing equipment and checking interoperability with other network components in hopes of laying the groundwork for new devices and services.

As reported by internetnews.com in May, Sprint (Quote, Chart) and Intel (Quote, Chart) teamed on products and services based on the emerging 802.16e mobile WiMax wireless broadband specification.

[rffrydr]

The DIY version:

http://businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2007/db2007103_368964.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

The first graphic shows the Sprint WiMax coverage area by the end of 2008. The States shaded in blue indicates that at least one metro area within that state will be covered by WiMax in 2008:

http://www.anandtech.com/tradeshows/showdoc.aspx?i=3104&p=10

[rffrydr]

The Powers That Be have their say:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-cities-woefully-unable-spread/story.aspx?guid=%7B6B188161%2DFD10%2D4462%2DB70C%2D37027810C40C%7D
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

mtvk,

Come on, the Australian study is nowhere near conclusive yet. In the meantime, we will just sit back and watch, and avoid all laser printers and copiers.

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/33160/113

Like you said, the embrace of new technology before we consider the ethical or environmental concerns has always been part of human nature. This is what makes the world move - and what causes the scientists and capitalists to wake up in the morning and do their work. Personally, I believe the general benefits have outweighed the down sides, unless one is discussing cases such as drug testing being done in sub-Saharan Africa by Big Pharma (note I haven't had a chance to look at any statistics yet). In this case, the local population suffered disproportionately and will never see the benefits from any studies that were done.

[mtvk]

Humans get excited in all new technologies without
even thinking once what damage that technology
could cause.

As you know, as usual, after many companies made money
research NOW shows being in a printer room is equivalent
to smoking cigarettes.

WiMax uses frequency close to microwave. Our body
didn't evolve in all the millions of years with these
constant radiation. No company is going to care as usual.

At the end of the day man is forgetting forest for the trees.

[HenryTo]

An update on Sprint WiMax:

http://www.dailytech.com/Sprint+Brands+WiMAX+as+XOHM+Plans+to+Invest+5B+in+Technology/article8486.htm

[HenryTo]

WiMax is deployed in Sydney and Melbourne, Australia. Brisbane is to get it by the end of this year:

http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;489895380

[dash]

From TheStreet.com:

Google's Wireless Landgrab

By Scott Moritz
Senior Writer
7/20/2007 10:01 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Scott Moritz

Google (GOOG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) is flexing its muscle in the mobile broadband business.

The company said Friday it would bid for $4.6 billion worth of wireless spectrum at a coming federal airwave auction -- but only if the Federal Communications Commission adopts so-called open standards for a speedy wireless broadband alternative to existing phone and cable Internet connections.

A key point of Google's proposal would involve a so-called open devices licensing condition, under which the FCC would mandate that consumers be enabled to use any wireless device on any company's network. The telcos who run the big existing networks oppose this concept.

Google's bold move comes just a day after the Mountain View, Calif., Net giant disappointed Wall Street with mixed second-quarter numbers. Google shares tumbled 7% in late trading Thursday and were maintaining that level Friday morning, down $36.10 to $512.40.

Google has been very interested in the 700MHz air waves, which are being vacated by analog UHF TV broadcasters who have been forced to move to digital signals. The newly available spectrum offers a prime swath of wireless real estate where the frequencies are particularly conducive to data transmission and can travel through walls.

The Federal Communications Commission is overseeing the auction and Chairman Kevin Martin has called the 700MHz band an opportunity for a "third pipe" and a "national wireless broadband alternative."

In recent months, Google has been busy trying to guide the FCC's policies on the auction and on the use of the spectrum. Google says its analysis suggests that conventional wireless players like AT&T (T - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Verizon (VZ - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) have a big advantage in the auction and the imperative to consolidate the new spectrum.

In a letter to the FCC on July 9, Google attorney Richard Whitt stressed that the company was interested in the new wireless opportunities the radio waves could open up.

"The 700 MHz auction may well be the FCC's most important wireless-related action for many years, because it could lead to the introduction of new facilities-based providers of broadband services, wielding new business models," Whitt wrote.

On Friday, Google reiterated its interest in the auction but said it will bid only if the FCC adopts four types of "open" platforms as part of the license conditions, including one that would allow consumers to choose a device and use it on any network.

One way or another, Google is planning on getting involved with the so-called fourth generation wireless or 4G business. If Google acquires a slice of the radio waves it will likely push an open platform approach and act as a wholesaler allowing other companies to resell a variety of services.

"Whether we ultimately bid, and do so successfully, we are also considering various post-auction business arrangements, such as joint partnerships and anchor tenancy," Whitt wrote.

A pricey dive into the wireless auction could put more pressure on expenses and further hurt the stock, says one money manager who is short the stock. By some estimates, if Google won spectrum, it would face as much as $6 billion in additional expenses as it builds a national wireless network infrastructure.

[HenryTo]

Thanks, Dash, for the link.

Looks like a win/win deal for both Sprint and Clearwire. Initially for the customer as well, as this will hasten the rollout of WiMax services all across the US. Down the road, however, it is not such a clear "win" for the consumer, unless wireless broadband competiton emerges from another type of technology, such as wireless "mesh" networks.

[dash]

[rffrydr]

Don't forget:

1. Pornogrpahy

Instant video communication will not be all it's cracked up to be. Remember it's "communicating" not "visiting. We need the curtain. All those RE Agents can't be 105% all of the time. And the flipside, conferencing, you'll never close a deal without all those little things...the handshake.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[dash]

That's a good list. The connecting together of many computers into a giant grid, especially in light of the fact that at any one time, more than 99% of their processing power is unused, will enable some very powerful applications. I'd add:

Climate prediciton
Bioinformatics and computational biology
Earthquake prediction
Intelligence/Defense applications and real time surveillance.
Materials science and computational nanotechnology
AI
Natural language search

[HenryTo]

I am still trying to come up with a list of "killer apps" that will push the demand for computing power going forward, just as we saw with word processing and then spreadsheet software (and to a large extent, various game titles as well):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killer_application

The difference is that in the early 21st century - aside from computing power - we will also need to look at bandwidth as well. A potential list could include:

1) Speech recognition software
2) Financial modeling software or data, especially if it is being delived online
3) Huge multiplayer online games, such as Second Life
4) Video on demand or video sharing over the net
5) The continuing trend of telecommuting - although here, it is about bandwidth more than anything else
6) The rapid adoption of solid state hard drives - meaning that the hard drive bottleneck will no longer be there, so every incremental processing or bandwidth speed bump will be all the more better.

Note that my last three points don't really come under the strict definition of the "killer app," since that term strictly refers to computer software applications only.

[HenryTo]

Oops, I spoke too soon.

Internet2 has just upgraded its network to 100 Gbps:

https://mail.internet2.edu/wws/arc/i2-news/2007-06/msg00004.html

[HenryTo]

Diesel, now that would be the ultimate connection!

Especially given that the speed record is currently held by the Internet2 consortium and is "only" capable of 10 Gbps (on a sustained basis, of course):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet2