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Tiffany & Co (TIF) |
HenryTo
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 Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: Tiffany & Co (TIF) |
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No slowdown here:
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Tiffany ups payout, sees 1st-qtr topping estimates
Thu May 15, 2008 10:25am EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - High-end jeweler Tiffany & Co (TIF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) raised its dividend by 13 percent on Thursday, saying the year had gotten off to a better-than-expected start, and raised its quarterly earnings estimate, sending shares up more than 5 percent.
The company said it expects to exceed its previous earnings-per-share forecast of 39 cents when it reports its first-quarter earnings in a few weeks.
"While we remain cautious about U.S. economic conditions, net earnings in the first quarter will surpass our previous expectation that called for earnings per share to be roughly equal to last year's 39 (cents)," said Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Kowalski in a statement.
Tiffany said it will raise its quarterly dividend to 17 cents per share from 15 cents. The shares were up $2.50, or 5.5 percent, at $48.33 on the New York Stock Exchange. |
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Tiffany & Co (TIF) Replies |
rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 10:36 am Post subject: |
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The days of $1.5/euro and rush of europeans to New York have disappeared in the rear-view. All that's left were investor's unstable expectations. Wicked irony for this high-flyer.
Going forward a lot will depend on the war on the rich and coming presidential election. The rich are still getting richer but, moat or no, I venture we've seen the highs here for a long time.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:46 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on TIF's holiday sales.
| Quote: | | Tiffany & Co. TIF released holiday sales figures for the two-month period at the end of 2011. Worldwide sales were up only 7% and that translated to 6% constant currency and 4% on a same-store basis. European same-store sales were negative 4%, understandable with the debt crisis there, but the surprise was the 2% comp in the Americas and the only 12% comp in Asia. The company also lowered guidance for the full year to $3.60-$3.65 per share, down from $3.70-$3.80 per share (given as recently as November), and we will adjust our fourth-quarter numbers accordingly. Shares are trading down sharply Tuesday morning and are off nearly 20% since November 2011, but we are standing by our $55 fair value estimate. Although we like Tiffany for the long term, we believe if diamond p rices continue to decline and the real estate boom in Asia continues to fizzle in the near term, there may be more opportune times to buy shares of this narrow-moat firm (which we believe indicates a long-term competitive advantage). We believe some of the decline in sales may have been due to the two seasons of positive comparisons, but also believe that the fall in diamond prices at rough and wholesale levels made jewelry sparkle a little less to luxury tourists in New York and abroad. Recall that Tiffany raised prices in 2011, but not nearly as much as it could have, giving a boost to sales figures just from the pricing component. At the same time, its long inventory cycle meant that at retail, the company likely had better quality goods, offered at very competitive prices, but its cost of goods would have been comparatively lower as the new higher cost inventory had not worked its way through the system. Now, while Tiffany is likely glad it didn't raise prices more, it m ay be faced with the prospect of weak demand, the absence of a pricing tailwind, and a higher cost of goods in 2012 when compared with 2011. While we believe Tiffany may have some more choppy quarters to come if current trends in world markets and diamond sales continue, our long-term valuation is based on Tiffany's high returns on capital and our belief that long-term growth will continue. We'd pay attention to this narrow-moat name as it is now trading toward 3-star territory (and investors would be fairly compensated for the risk and cost of capital if the company grew at our forecast rate) and we would find it attractive if additional weakness in the stock is experienced. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 2:45 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar's 3Q 2009 earnings notes on TIF:
| Quote: | | With better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, Tiffany's TIF results year to date are trending above our projections, and we expect to modestly increase our fair value estimate. Total sales on a constant currency basis were down 5%, with comparable-store sales down 6% from the prior-year quarter. While domestic sales (down 10% on a comparable-store basis) remain weak and are trending in line with our expectations, sales in Europe (up 9% on a same-store sales basis in constant currency) and Asia Pacific (up 9% on a comparable-store basis in constant currency, excluding Japan) are holding up better than we expected. The company reported an operating margin of 11.2% compared with 12.7% in the prior-year period with higher product costs and the deleveraging of fixed expenses due to lower sales weighing on the bottom line. Our forecast for total sales in the fourth quarter is now a low- to mid-single-digit increase, given the improving sentiment among high-end consumers and the positive momentum we are seeing in some international markets. We expect recent cost-cutting efforts will offset a lower gross margin in the fourth quarter, resulting in an operating margin around 20%. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2009 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar's 2Q2009 earnings notes on TIF:
| Quote: | | TIF second-quarter results confirm our view that consumers remain cautious in spending on high-end goods in the current environment. However, management reported that the year-over-year sales declines are decelerating at many stores, and some are starting to post sales growth, which we think is a positive sign that sentiment among high-end consumers may be improving. Second-quarter sales and profits through the first six months of the year are tracking slightly ahead of our expectations, but the variation is not enough to warrant a change to our fair value estimate. Total sales in the quarter were $612.5 million, down 16% from the year-ago quarter (14% on a constant currency basis). We were not surprised to see a weak showing in sales year over year from the Americas segment (down 23%), offset by less weakness in the Asia Pacific group (down 3% on a constant currency basis) and strength in the European business (up 13% on a constant exchange rate basis). The company reported an operating margin of 14.6% compared with 18% in the prior-year period as higher product costs and the deleveraging from the sales shortfall offset reduced staffing and marketing costs in the quarter. Although we expect sales and profit margins to remain weak through the back half of the year, the recent stock market gains could be the catalyst that Tiffany's more-affluent consumers are looking for to start spending more freely on luxury goods. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:57 am Post subject: |
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Tiffany blue
Published: March 23 2009 15:06 | Last updated: March 23 2009 18:58
A man buying sparkling adornments is typically a babe in the hands of experts. The combined effect of love and heavy marketing has long been a recipe for fat margins. The question for investors in Tiffany – whose shares jumped 14 per cent on Monday following fourth-quarter results that were less bad than feared – is just how enduring the appeal of their trademark blue boxes will be.
For now, the jeweller could hardly be worse placed in the recession without being a bank. Fully one 10th of the group’s sales are generated by one store in New York, where free- spending tourists and bankers with bonuses are becoming scarce. And the aspirational middle-class shoppers targeted by the group as it expanded its range of more affordable silver and into less prestigious locations, are now more concerned with mortgage payments than bling. US sales were down by a third in the quarter.
Instead, the positive share price reaction was prompted by the retailer taking sensible action to protect profitability. Staff numbers will be cut by about one 10th this year and the Iridesse specialist pearl chain will be closed. Inventory and capital spending levels are to be trimmed. Also a deal with Swatch to produce watches provides an area for future growth. Turnover in Asia – where Tiffany now has more stores than in the US – held up relatively well with comparable sales even positive in Japan, where the bulk of the company’s scaled-back opening programme is now focused.
Yet such resilience largely reflects the region’s economies trailing the US decline, and the outlook remains bleak. In this market, a valuation of 14 times prospective earnings is an expensive luxury that few can afford
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