TM - toyota motors

[gregf]

at it's 200DMA

forbes article
"NEW YORK - Japanese automaker Toyota Motor is doing a lot of things right. The company makes the popular Prius, a gas-electric hybrid car, for which customers happily wait months. It just announced last week that it expected to sell 900,000 cars in Europe in 2004, up from its previous forecast of 860,000. And it is sitting on $21.6 billion in cash. "


http://www.forbes.com/newsletter/2004/09/27/cz_mr_0927gurupicks.html?partner=triggernews

[HenryTo]

Thanks for the idea. One thing that definitely does have a lot going for these companies is a lack of pension and healthcare liablities going forward - unlike GM and Ford. Maybe the stock market will bail them out but I don't think so.

[gregf]

launch off the 200DMA commences

Long this one from $73.70

announcement off schwab news
Japan's Auto Production Rises 2.5% On Year In August -2-

01:02 Wednesday, September 29, 2004
August Vehicles Change On Year Overall 699,338 +2.5% Passenger cars 571,407 +3.1% standard-size 274,001 +10.4% small-size 221,894 -4.1% mini cars 75,512 +1.4% Trucks 123,466 -0.5% standard-size 61,107 +4.2% small-size 30,557 -9.5% mini trucks 31,802 +0.5% Buses 4,465 +15.9% large-size 730 +3.8% small-size 3,735 +18.6% (standard-size cars and trucks are those with engine capacity of 2000 cubic centimeters or more. Mini-cars and mini-trucks are those with engine capacity of 660 cc or less.) -By Koji Okuda, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2929

[HenryTo]

Planning for a long-term hold, Greg?

Where do you see the auto industry heading? I don't think the American auto industry is a lost cause yet. The one thing that we can work on is quality and technology and I think we can do it (despite even high pension and healthcare costs) if we really put our heads to it. The auto industry isn't like the steel or copper industry - unless one wants to buy a stripped-down car from places like China or South Korea (although the Koreans have been doing a surperb job recently).

[gregf]

depends on your definition of "long term"

My gut says to sell it when it revisits it's upper BB - maybe around 79?

Other thoughts appreciated!

[gregf]

well, TM has been probing that upper BB for a few sessions, my thought is to bail at this point. I'm not convinced that a big market decline is in the works but the indexes are once again near their resistance zones and is it really worth it to hold now with probably limited upside?

appreciate other thoughts!

[gregf]

yesterday was a good day to sell!

I was playing in a charity golf tournament and didn't get home until late. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

[gregf]

yesterday. Should have sold it when it hit the upper BB,,...

[HenryTo]

Greg,

I would think that was a pretty good trade already - considering how treacherous the market has been (and may continue to be for the foreseeable future).

Good luck with all your trades going forward. I prefer to be short or flat right now.

Henry

[HenryTo]

Pretty interesting although I personally don't think it will come to fruition:
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Toyota urges price hike -- to help Detroit

Japanese car makers, riding surging market share in North America, worry about a backlash and suggest it's time to give GM and Ford 'time to take a breath.'

By The Associated Press

Toyota's chairman is urging Japanese automakers to raise prices or find other ways to even the playing field with ailing U.S. rivals General Motors and Ford in hopes of heading off a possible protectionist backlash in the crucial North American market.

Toyota (TM, news, msgs) Chairman Hiroshi Okuda was quoted by Japanese media on Tuesday as saying the plight of General Motors (GM, news, msgs) and Ford (F, news, msgs) could result in problems for Toyota and other foreign carmakers.

Okuda told reporters Monday that Japan's auto industry must consider a response, such as raising car prices in the United States and cooperating in technology.

"We need to give some time for American companies to take a breath," Okuda was quoted as saying by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's biggest business daily.

"I'm concerned about the current situation surrounding GM. Although a trade conflict, like ones (that) happened in the past, may be avoided, there may be some impact (on Japan's car industry) because the car industry is symbolic in the U.S. economy," Okuda was quoted as saying by the Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun.

Revisiting '80s outrage
A Toyota spokeswoman on Tuesday confirmed the quotes from the two newspapers, but added that the company has no plans to raise prices on its U.S. models.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the spokeswoman also noted that Okuda was speaking in his capacity as the head of the key Japanese business lobby Keidanren.

Toyota and other Japanese automakers were the target of U.S. workers' outrage in the 1980s. The Japanese were accused of robbing jobs from American workers and market share from U.S. automakers.

Such sentiments have since subsided because Toyota and other Japanese automakers increasingly produce cars in the United States, creating jobs for thousands of Americans.

But Okuda's comments appeared to be an attempt to stave off any possible backlash. His remarks also suggests that he sees the American automakers as needing help to compete with Japan's car companies.

Last week, General Motors reported a loss of $1.1 billion for the January-March quarter, its biggest quarterly loss in more than a decade, partly because the Detroit automaker has been losing U.S. market share to Asian manufacturers.

While faring better than GM, Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford is also losing market share and says it could sink post a loss or break even before special charges in the second quarter.

Japanese makers on a tear
Toyota, which reports earnings next month, has been consistently boosting global sales. It has a reputation for reliable fuel-efficient cars and has an edge over rivals in environment-friendly hybrid technology.

Toyota, based in Toyota city in central Japan, has passed Ford to become the No. 2 automaker in global vehicle sales. Some analysts believe it's just a matter of time before it catches up with GM, the world's biggest automaker.

Other Japanese automakers are also reporting a robust performance.

On Monday, Nissan (NSANY, news, msgs) posted record profits for the fiscal year ended March 31 with U.S. vehicle sales surging 18% from a year ago. Honda (HMC, news, msgs) reported a 5% increase in fiscal year profit Tuesday as sales climbed to a record for the fourth straight year.

[HenryTo]

Toyota's first sales decline in two years, but of course, the weak auto sales number isn't just relegated to Toyota either. i.e. It is across the board. Fitch also expects that the subprime woes in the housing sector will also spread to subprime auto and credit card sectors. Stay tuned.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRBhh40loQ6g&refer=home

[diesel]

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=11631

Some details on the third generation prius coming in 2009.
_________________
Out of clutter, find simplicity. From discord, find harmony. In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity. - Albert Einstein

[HenryTo]

Thanks Diesel, for the link. Here is a picture (note that it is a concept design) of the next-gen Prius:

http://www.engadget.com/2008/04/29/next-gen-toyota-prius-bigger-stronger-more-prius-like-than-ev/

The car will also get a boost of 25 horsepower and with 10% more efficiency.

[HenryTo]

As far as I know, they still have plans to unveil a plug-in hybrid by 2010:

http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/14/toyota-announces-plug-in-hybrid-for-2010/

[diesel]

It will get interesting if GM can get the volt out the door around the same time as the new prius. The technology in the volt looks amazing! Maybe GM isnt a lost cause yet?
_________________
Out of clutter, find simplicity. From discord, find harmony. In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity. - Albert Einstein