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TM - toyota motors |
gregf
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 Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2004 11:41 am Post subject: TM - toyota motors |
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at it's 200DMA
forbes article
"NEW YORK - Japanese automaker Toyota Motor is doing a lot of things right. The company makes the popular Prius, a gas-electric hybrid car, for which customers happily wait months. It just announced last week that it expected to sell 900,000 cars in Europe in 2004, up from its previous forecast of 860,000. And it is sitting on $21.6 billion in cash. "
http://www.forbes.com/newsletter/2004/09/27/cz_mr_0927gurupicks.html?partner=triggernews |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 7:06 am Post subject: |
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All about that Camry:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-11/toyota-threatened-in-u-s-by-camry-competition.html
Turns out Thai floods bigger impediment to production than tsunami direct hit. Filling out the ambitions of its WWII aims, japan has transformed SE Asia (and, yes, china too) as it "hollowed out" the Kieretsu under US political pressure...only to reinvent it.
Of course no calamity is calamitous enough to seriously depreciate its stock price--one of the great cross-holdings of industrial policy on earth.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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They say July now....with some offshore slowdown to remain. Yen is big squeeze and Toyota drops the phrase "marketing effors." Incentive war is not going to be good for anyone.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:23 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on Toyota's fiscal 2012 forecast:
| Quote: | Toyota Announces Fiscal 2012 Forecast
On Friday, Toyota Motor Corporation TM announced its fiscal 2012 forecast, becoming the first major Japanese automaker to do so since the March 11 earthquake. The numbers are poor, especially in the first half of the fiscal year, but we will maintain our fair value estimate for now. As mentioned previously, we will reassess our assumptions once we update our model for Toyota's 20-F (likely being filed with the SEC in late June). Holding all other assumptions constant, incorporating the fiscal 2012 forecast would reduce our fair value estimate by about 11%. However, we believe reducing our fair value estimate solely based on fiscal 2012 expectations would be short sighted. We continue to believe the global auto industry has significant growth ahead, and the damage from the earthquake does not impair Toyota's long-run earnings power. We see the very strong yen relative to the dollar and the threat of another recession as far more significant headwinds for Toyota than earthquake effects in the long term. Thus, although we will not reduce our fair value estimate today, a modest change is possible once we update our model for the 20-F.
For the full year, revenue is expected to decline 2.1% to JPY 18.6 trillion, while operating income will fall nearly 36% to JPY 300 billion and net income will be JPY 280 billion. This forecast assumes an average exchange rate of 82 yen to the dollar and 115 yen to the euro. Management expects continued strong growth in emerging markets and a moderate recovery in developed markets, though constrained by high unemployment and oil prices. Japan's economy is also expected to gradually recover, but management expects a weak recovery in the short run due to the earthquake. Consolidated vehicle sales are forecast at 7.24 million units, down from 7.3 million in fiscal 2011. Management expects a JPY 100 billion positive contribution to operating income from cost cutting measures, but a JPY 100 billion currency headwind and a JPY 120 billion increase in overhead are responsible for most of the decline in income. First-half operating income is projected to be a negative JPY 120 billion, but a large production recovery in the second half of fiscal 2012 will contribute JPY 420 billion in operating profit.
Although this forecast is weak, its severity is not unexpected, and we think actual results could beat expectations. We think there is potential for a positive surprise as the year unfolds, since production and demand could recover faster than planned. Production has been resuming faster than originally planned since the earthquake, and we are looking for normal global production to resume by November. Further good news also came Friday from microcontroller maker Renesas. The firm, which supplies many automakers, announced its Naka, Japan plant will be at pre-earthquake capacity levels by the end of September--one month earlier than previously anticipated. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | | Fading Lexus: |
Jalopnik hit this angle too, may have even linked to the AE site.
Soon the strippers will need different stage names. Lexus used to be quite common, I doubt that Equus will make the grade.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 8:14 am Post subject: |
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Fading Lexus:
http://www.autoextremist.com/
| Quote: | When Lexus first came into this market they undercut their German competitors by $15,000, losing money on every car while doing so, all in the interest of gaining a foothold in this market. And it worked beautifully.
But fast forward to today and here’s Hyundai undercutting Lexus by $15,000 in this market with its Equus luxury sedan, which is, for all intents and purposes, a Lexus clone and a damn good one too. Maybe even better. And Lexus really has no answer for it other than to say something like “we’ve always been here, our dealers are great, our customers are happy and we will prevail.” Uh-huh.
But that’s not all, because the German manufacturers are reinvigorated and getting very aggressive in this market, attacking myriad segments with vehicles bristling with a distinct point of view and a real driving difference from the Lexus pillow-mobiles. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:50 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar's latest analysis on TM:
http://analysis.morningstar.com/analystreport/ar.aspx?symbol=TM
| Quote: | Toyota Motor Corporation TM president Akio Toyoda held a surprise press conference Friday in Tokyo following a new production announcement. Toyota now expects normal production to resume globally by November or December. This timing is far worse than previous comments by executives at Honda HMC and Nissan NSANY who have said a few months in Honda's case and just weeks in Nissan's case. Thus, we are interested to see if these firms follow Toyota's lead and give an updated assessment that is more dire than previous comments. We are leaving our Toyota fair value estimate in place, as we continue to expect the company to make up the majority of lost sales late this year, and in 2012 and 2013. Toyota reports fiscal 2011 year-end results on May 11, and at some point in May (possibly May 11) we expect the company to severely lower its fiscal 2012 earnings guidance.
Toyota's Japanese plants are currently producing at 50% of capacity, while production outside Japan is at 40%, but only 30% in its North American factories. Akio Toyoda said that current Japan output levels are "the low point from which we intend to increase production as much as possible from around July." At plants outside Japan, this gradual increase in output will not begin until around August due to the delay in shipping parts from Japan. After that time, the exact cadence of a recovery to normal production by November or December is not known, since it will depend on the region and model. The Wall Street Journal on Friday quoted Toyota officials as saying that the vehicles with the greatest number of parts will be last to resume full production. This news is unfortunate for Toyota, since it includes the high margin Lexus models. All Lexus models except the popular RX crossover are made in Japan. Toyota previously had 500 parts in severe shortage but that number is now down to 150, and includes many basic parts such as resin and rubber. The problem is these parts are custom-made to specific vehicle programs, so it is not possible to quickly switch to another vendor. Furthermore, executive vice president Shinichi Sasaki was quoted as saying even when Toyota had more than one supplier, it turned out these Tier 1 suppliers were using the same Tier 2 supplier. Thus both Tier 1 suppliers cannot meet Toyota's needs when the Tier 2 supplier is offline. Toyota will begin looking at its supply chain to see if it can use more easily available parts, though such a review is too late to fix the present situation.
The company expects its global output through April to be 500,000 units less than planned. Previous 2011 production goals were for 7.7 million units, with 3.1 million made in Japan. We also expect more market share losses in the important U.S. market, particularly in the hybrid and luxury segments. Another key supply problem comes from microcontroller firm Renesas Electronics Corporation, which on Friday announced that its Naka plant will resume mass production on June 15, instead of the previous guidance of mid-July.
The Renesas announcement and the Toyota announcement that current output is the low point is the only good news to come from Friday's events. However, we continue to believe the sell-off in Toyota stock will soon present a buying opportunity for patient investors. We think that the last major negative headline risk to the stock related to the earthquake would be when the company finally revises guidance downward. Although there is always lots of uncertainty and volatility in the auto sector from oil prices, consumer confidence, unemployment and geopolitical events, we think the global auto industry continues to emerge from the recession. Once Toyota's factories are back to normal, we think the company will be well-positioned to benefit from this recovery, as it already was doing so prior to the earthquake. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2011 8:41 am Post subject: |
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Here we are in the world of just-in-time inventory as pioneered by this company, indeed the whole system of incremental quality improvements measured across the tiniest of components.....and none of these large manufacturers know their supply chain:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2011/03/toyota-honda-extend-production-shutdowns/1
So much of the world's manufacturing these days is hidden....it's in the economy.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:15 am Post subject: |
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$72 M/day lost production on electricity alone, at only this point. It's forgotten how much of the supply chain still comes from japan in their "homegrown" american production.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:26 am Post subject: |
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Killer yen. TM learning the japanese for "when it rains it pours."
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Fri Jul 16, 2010 5:49 am Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | Never ever a case of SUACC in manual transmission.
But that CHP family-man smashup will linger. |
Yes, if "government" really wanted to do something about "distracted driving" then they could simply mandate all cars sold in the U.S. have non-syncromesh manual trannies.
Nothing makes you pay attention to what you're doing like actually having to DO something.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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Never ever a case of SUACC in manual transmission.
But that CHP family-man smashup will linger.
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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| nodoodahs wrote: | Retest of the $71-$74 area may be good point for accumulation. Certainly a well-defined point with clarity on setting stops for in case you’re wrong.
Not for me, though, still long BRIITs, will re-eval by EOW.
Problem with these types of situations is that every eggroll with an accident will now be trying to blame it on TM's vehicles ... the percentage of legitimate complaints likely goes DOWN as the number of complaints goes up. |
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703834604575364871534435744.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The incidents include 75 fatal crashes involving 93 deaths.
However, NHTSA has been able to verify that only one of those fatal crashes was caused by a problem with the vehicle, according to information the agency provided to the National Academy of Sciences.
Basically, the other 74 fatal crashes and 89 deaths were the result of idiots pressing the gas thinking it was the brakes, then blaming it on the cars. [Expletive!]
Ms. Marseille sticks by her story. "It makes me very angry when someone tells me, 'She probably hit the gas pedal instead,' because I think it's a sexist comment, an ageist comment," she said.
If the shoe fits, you should swallow it, you old broad. Jalopnik put together an age histogram of persons claiming "sudden acceleration, and lo and behold!, it was shifted a lot OLDER than the profile of the U.S. driving population. Hmmm. Might be fun (if I had the time – I don’t) to examine the age profile of the drivers in those 74 crashes ...
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rffrydr
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:48 am Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | | NASA going to study the electro-magnetic effects on driving by wire. |
Maybe space aliens caused it ...
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