Trouble on the Home Front

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2006 9:14 am Post subject: Trouble on the Home Front

FYI:
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Trouble on the Home Front
By Nicholas Yulico
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
1/25/2006 9:48 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/realestate/10263958.html

Homebuilders Centex (CTX:NYSE) and Ryland (RYL:NYSE) both reported strong quarterly earnings, but their new-order numbers, which will drive future growth, look dismal.

Calabasas, Calif.-based Ryland said its net income rose 49% to $162 million, or $3.32 per share, compared to $108.7 million, or $2.17 per share, a year earlier. The results handily beat the consensus $3.12 estimate on First Call.

But Ryland's unit orders fell 5% year-over-year for its latest quarter. The lackluster performance led A.G. Edwards analyst Greg Gieber to cut his rating on Ryland to sell. He also dropped his 2006 EPS estimate to $10.25 from $10.90. In a research note Wednesday morning, Gieber noted that the only area of strength in Ryland's orders came from Texas, where unit sales were up 27%. However, the average selling price in Texas is 36% below the company's average, with equally low gross margins, he said.

"Using our new 2006 EPS estimate, Ryland currently trades at a 7.3 times multiple. That is a 12% premium to the group's current average 2006 multiple of 6.5 times. We don't believe Ryland warrants any premium to the group," Gieber wrote.

Centex, which reported a 30% increase in its quarterly earnings, reported order growth, but it was weaker than analysts expected.

The Dallas-based builder said its new orders rose 4% to 8,128 homes. Sales were strongest in the Southwest, where orders spiked 28% year over year. On the West Coast, orders rose 10%. But orders fell 15% in the Southeast, 8% in the mid-Atlantic and 3% in the Midwest.

"This is not particularly positive to hit only 4%, though we don't know all the details behind it," says Gieber, who was expecting nearly 11% order growth.

Centex said net income rose to $329.3 million, or $2.49 a share, for its fiscal third quarter ending Dec. 31, up from $253.8 million, or $1.91 a share, a year earlier. Excluding discontinued items, Centex posted earnings of $332.7 million, or $2.52 a share. Analysts expected earnings of $2.48 a share, according to Thomson First Call.

Revenue rose 25% to $3.74 billion, shy of analysts forecast of $3.81 billion.

Centex's earnings growth came amid an 18% increase in home closings, which rose to 9,504 units from 8,047, and a 130-basis-point jump in operating margin.

The weak orders will likely be a focus on both companies' conference calls Wednesday morning. Homebuilder Meritage (MTH:NYSE) will also report earnings today at an unspecified time.

The existing home sales data comes out at 10 a.m. EST from the National Association of Realtors.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:21 pm Post subject:

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090925.htm?T

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2009 7:51 am Post subject:

If its happening in Sac its happening:

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2080102.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2009 6:57 am Post subject:

Internet changes everything in the house-hunt except that which needs changing most--the agent:

http://www.sacbee.com/business/story/2067432.html
_________________
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:41 am Post subject:

The write-up recovery going to head-to-head with consumer and commercial writedowns.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/07/17/62641/citi-subprime-snapshot/

_________________
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 7:48 am Post subject:

Businessweek's casestudy. Location, location, location:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_26/b4137028238311.htm
_________________
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 2:27 pm Post subject:

Here's our recovery--hidden from plain view:

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:29 am Post subject:

'89 prices in SoCal?! Location, location location: this is most decidedly NOT the case within LA proper.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cheaphomes10-2009jun10,0,4802553.story

Why the adjustment may be less than Wall St. calculates:

"......If neighborhood property values fall further, so be it, Rossi figured. The improvement in his quality of life is gain enough.

"I did not buy a slot machine," he said. "I am not an investor.

"That's what got us into this mess -- greed," he said of the housing crash.

"Greed messed everything up.""
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:35 am Post subject:

Rotated another 5% into MBB today out of High Yield, that'll be the last regardless. Let's see if this is true:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/03/56591/maximum-negative-convexity/

If it is. And it fails. And Geithner's pitching 4% custom treasuries to the chinese then we've got problems.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 12:10 pm Post subject:

Took 5% out of High Yield yesterday on the Gross success story and put it in MBB--no biggie, cept for the guy who's got your back:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWyUhGakPYSg

He said it would be the theme for the coming years.
_________________
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:07 am Post subject:

Geithner can't sell his house:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31082378
_________________
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 8:57 am Post subject:

"Black Wednesday"

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/78362.aspx

_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 2:28 am Post subject:

Evaluating the trend of housing prices (on a U.S. median housing price basis) as priced in gold:

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090529.htm?T

We are probably approaching a cyclical low sometime in the next 6 months.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 26, 2009 4:16 pm Post subject:

Case on the current report: defies seasonals ("we are only a three months moving average" e.g. ending)

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vXNheh9zaUKo.mp3
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HenryTo · Posted: Sun May 24, 2009 3:38 pm Post subject:

Institutional and high net worth investment funds pouring into distressed housing properties in cities such as Phoenix, etc:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/24/business/24phoenix.html?src=linkedin

rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 11:41 am Post subject:

SFR were actually up, the dropoff coming from apartments. The last thing we need now is housing push. We'll write off in the economy what we can't in the banks.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!