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Trouble on the Home Front |
HenryTo
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 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2006 9:14 am Post subject: Trouble on the Home Front |
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FYI:
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Trouble on the Home Front
By Nicholas Yulico
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
1/25/2006 9:48 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/realestate/10263958.html
Homebuilders Centex (CTX:NYSE) and Ryland (RYL:NYSE) both reported strong quarterly earnings, but their new-order numbers, which will drive future growth, look dismal.
Calabasas, Calif.-based Ryland said its net income rose 49% to $162 million, or $3.32 per share, compared to $108.7 million, or $2.17 per share, a year earlier. The results handily beat the consensus $3.12 estimate on First Call.
But Ryland's unit orders fell 5% year-over-year for its latest quarter. The lackluster performance led A.G. Edwards analyst Greg Gieber to cut his rating on Ryland to sell. He also dropped his 2006 EPS estimate to $10.25 from $10.90. In a research note Wednesday morning, Gieber noted that the only area of strength in Ryland's orders came from Texas, where unit sales were up 27%. However, the average selling price in Texas is 36% below the company's average, with equally low gross margins, he said.
"Using our new 2006 EPS estimate, Ryland currently trades at a 7.3 times multiple. That is a 12% premium to the group's current average 2006 multiple of 6.5 times. We don't believe Ryland warrants any premium to the group," Gieber wrote.
Centex, which reported a 30% increase in its quarterly earnings, reported order growth, but it was weaker than analysts expected.
The Dallas-based builder said its new orders rose 4% to 8,128 homes. Sales were strongest in the Southwest, where orders spiked 28% year over year. On the West Coast, orders rose 10%. But orders fell 15% in the Southeast, 8% in the mid-Atlantic and 3% in the Midwest.
"This is not particularly positive to hit only 4%, though we don't know all the details behind it," says Gieber, who was expecting nearly 11% order growth.
Centex said net income rose to $329.3 million, or $2.49 a share, for its fiscal third quarter ending Dec. 31, up from $253.8 million, or $1.91 a share, a year earlier. Excluding discontinued items, Centex posted earnings of $332.7 million, or $2.52 a share. Analysts expected earnings of $2.48 a share, according to Thomson First Call.
Revenue rose 25% to $3.74 billion, shy of analysts forecast of $3.81 billion.
Centex's earnings growth came amid an 18% increase in home closings, which rose to 9,504 units from 8,047, and a 130-basis-point jump in operating margin.
The weak orders will likely be a focus on both companies' conference calls Wednesday morning. Homebuilder Meritage (MTH:NYSE) will also report earnings today at an unspecified time.
The existing home sales data comes out at 10 a.m. EST from the National Association of Realtors.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2009 7:21 am Post subject: |
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Mortgage workouts not working out. I'm baffled by this N. Korean-like intransigence on the part of the now taxpayer funded banks. The contract must be the thing.... so BK cramdowns lurking, satisfied???
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-loanmods4-2009apr04,0,4466775.story
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:55 am Post subject: |
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Spent last couple weekends "enjoying" SoCal foreclosure Salebration auctions. The unfinancable crap was clearing at great values, middle-road stuff attracted healthy bidding, awkward unfinished projects were being called back and the sprinkling of poor homes in rich areas were met buy bidding frenzies only to be described as extraordinary.
American Banker did a piece on this. The "auction-touch" can def. add value--waiting there in grand hotel ballrooms, with the wife for hours and then suddenly the spotlight is on you. "Star Value."
Financiers and lawyers were lined up and really making a stretch with 4.6% rates.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:42 am Post subject: |
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Straight from the horse's mouth:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vGO5fbyN5aJ0.mp3
Bubble markets (exception of Vegas, of course) are finding buyers and clearing. Surprises in Boston. Shiller refuses to "use" his own index. Products coming to NYSE.
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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Housing showing some signs of stability. The FHFA no doubt adjusts their data for the monthly change in the geographical sales mix - but it is not perfect. Word is that the latest increase is probably caused by a shift towards more sales in the West in January, where houses generally sell for higher prices. The most significant data will be the Case-Shiller Index, which will be released next Tuesday.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123790736606125797.html |
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the_vates
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| Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 11:56 am Post subject: Trouble on the Home Front |
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Yeah, see the problem is that more people are renting now as in this economy it is safer, ie. if they want to move they don't have to sell. So my advice for all those struggling builders is to go with the flow, stop being so darn up tight. Sell your companies, become a landlord. Now that advice may sound un-thought out but really housing was the first to crash, more than likely it will be the last back on its feet. And though i have great faith in Obama, I don't think shoving cash down peoples throwts will really help, doesn't he listen to NPR at all? most people say they will use the cash to buy gas or pay to put food on the table! Not that I am objecting to having some extra cash. But its a rare person that in this economy would take their lifeline from eviction and throw it into the stock market. Now sorry for that rant, back to my origonal subject. "When things get bad, look for the good, and go for that". Take the chance! It works.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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Better get the other builders to follow for Fed needs more gas:
| Quote: | The Federal Reserve Board may be running into a natural barrier to its ability to bring down mortgage rates, according to analysts at UBS AG.
In a note to clients that was sent last week, the analysts wrote that lower rates induce borrowers to take out new loans, increasing the supply of new mortgage bonds and counteracting the demand created by government purchases.
The Fed announced a program to buy up to $500 billion of agency mortgage bonds in November, and it had bought $69 billion worth as of Jan. 29.
The program has had a dramatic effect, driving down the average rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage by 108 basis points from the weekly period before its announcement to a low of 4.96% for the week that ended Jan. 15, according to a Freddie Mac survey.
The average has since drifted up to 5.10% in the week that ended Jan. 29. |
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