Trouble on the Home Front

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:32 am Post subject:

Pay option loans keeping the pressure on:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-23497622.htm
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probtrader · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 117

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 5:04 am Post subject:

Yes, the margin calls make the bid evaporate. And when it's GSE paper (even levered at 32X) we're back to nobody trusts no-one. Once again, the govt. HAS to take this as collateral. It has to an extent, but not front and center. As a taxpayer, at these prices, I can only say go for it.

I like that pyramid. Wanna switch?
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probtrader · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 117

You American want switch youf big US dollar phyramid for little French art glass?? Beaucoup plus chere mon amis, beaucoup plus chere...

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:05 am Post subject:

This has to change for any meaningful recovery:

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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:35 am Post subject:

ARM loan Map:

http://www.businessweek.com/common_ssi/map_of_misery.htm
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 7:05 am Post subject:

ARM rates are still higher now than at the height of Fed Easing. Hopefully this is an extreme.

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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:09 am Post subject:

Average US mortgage rates, per Freddie Mac:

MARCH 20 (REUTERS) - FREDDIE MAC (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) AVERAGE U.S. MORTGAGE RATES (PERCENT) FOR WEEKS ENDING:

MAR 20 MAR 13 YEAR AGO

30-YR 5.87 6.13 6.16

15-YR 5.27 5.60 5.90

5-YR ARM 5.56 5.58 5.91

1-YR ARM 5.15 5.14 5.40

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject:

BOE spearheading co-ordinated direct targeting of mortgages:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ee2328f2-f77f-11dc-ac40-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F1%2Fee2328f2-f77f-11dc-ac40-000077b07658.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Feurope

England has no "GSE's" and relatively small market has most to gain. Germans want to punish the unwarry--but still carrying Spain.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclose22mar22,0,2025907.story

It's remarkable how hamstrung our "free market" was going into this crises in Jan. A "Super-SIV" at that time with across-the-board ARM caps and.... but maybe that's a question for the lawyers.
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 8:40 am Post subject:

Latest OFHEO and Case-Shiller data:
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OFHEO: US Home Prices Fell 1.1% In January

Mar 25, 2008 10:28:29 (ET)

By Michael R. Crittenden

OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. home prices fell an estimated 1.1% in January, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Tuesday.

The decline was much higher than the 0.6% decline seen in December, and offered the latest evidence that the housing market woes continue unabated.

Ofheo, which regulates Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), said home prices fell 3.0% for the 12-month period ending in January. The seasonally-adjusted index is down 4.1% from its April 2007 peak.

Regionally, the index showed the largest home price declines in New England, where purchase prices fell 2.9%. The West Coast and upper Midwest saw price declines of 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The only area of the country that saw prices increase was the Mountain states - including Colorado, Nevada and Arizona - where prices rose 0.1%.

The monthly declines reported by Ofheo reinforced the idea that the housing market has yet to reach a bottom. Earlier Tuesday, it was reported that the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell by a record 11.4% in January.

Ofheo's monthly index is based on the purchase prices of houses backing mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

-By Michael R. Crittenden, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9273; michael.crittenden@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 25, 2008 10:28 ET (14:28 GMT)

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:16 am Post subject:

Spreads nudging wider again.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 11:24 pm Post subject:

Foreign buyers now coming into the SoCal housing market. Note that California represents 16% of all international purchases in the US - second in popularity behind Florida - despite the fact that SoCal has some of the most overvalued (on a price-to-average-local-income basis) housing areas in the country:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-re-international23mar23,1,5435293.story

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:10 pm Post subject:

Yesterday's "celebration" in the mortgage mkt--from a broker I know:

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject:

More details:
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US Mtge Brokers,Borrowers Get Scant Relief -Trade Publication

Apr 2, 2008 17:43:37 (ET)

NEW YORK (AP)--Home buyers and homeowners who have bad credit or live in high-cost cities are having a hair-pulling time getting new mortgages because investors on Wall Street are still skittish, new data Wednesday showed. And mortgage brokers say the government's new efforts to loosen lending restrictions are providing little relief so far.

The mortgage bond market has virtually evaporated for new loans that don't meet the more prudent guidelines of government-backed mortgage giants like Fannie Mae (FNM) or Freddie Mac (FRE). The share of these so-called "non-agency" mortgage bonds plunged to 6% of the market in the first quarter, the lowest share in almost two decades, and down from 51% in the first quarter last year, according to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance.

That hurts borrowers with subprime credit, for example, entrepreneurs or people without steady paychecks, or people who needed loans larger than government limits. While Congress last month raised the limits on loans that can be sold to government agencies to $729,750, borrowers are still being shut out.

There are new restrictions on these loans "that makes them pretty useless," said Ginny Ferguson, co-owner of Heritage Valley Mortgage in Pleasanton, Calif.

The restrictions prevent homeowners from refinancing if they take out more than 5% of their equity, or from consolidating two mortgages into one. Also, buyers in areas where prices are falling, like California and Florida, must pony up larger down payments.

Some lenders haven't even started processing the new conforming loans. Until June 1, when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac roll out an updated underwriting system, lenders must manually underwrite these mortgages, Ferguson said.

The government's share could grow as more lenders start processing these loans and if the credit crisis deepens. And that's hard to imagine: Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae had a 94% share of new mortgage bonds in the first quarter, compared to 49% in the year-ago period.

"Everybody abandoned the non-agency securities. It's difficult now to make a loan that isn't backed by the government," said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

dknoester · Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 8:44 am Post subject:

This is happening in Ireland as well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home

DK
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