Trouble on the Home Front

cblanchb · Newbie Joined: 16 Jan 2008 Posts: 16

How do you guys think IMB will do with this home crisis? They already laid off quite a few employees and recently their default ratings were reduced to junk. Think they will pull through or are they goners?

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject:

Again, here's a bold stock...mortgage REIT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RWT&t=1y

Classic "retest" on lower low on much lighter volume...but do you really want to own this at July's levels?
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:10 am Post subject:

"Toxic Title"

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_02/b4066046083770.htm?chan=search

PMI to stop insuring high LTV mortgages.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200802120310DOWJONESDJONLINE000114.htm
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HenryTo · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:52 pm Post subject:

The potential government solutions are now piling up - as we have suggested earlier:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120294935869166831.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2008 9:30 am Post subject:

Some ground-up solutions made possible by, you know what:

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104429/I'll-Buy-Your-House-If-You-Buy-Mine;_ylt=AvYNdFFPU.8BeLJnkVQmXOlO7sMF

10 percent price not a problem with 12 percent out of the realtors hide.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject:

"Valuing" CA res RE:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120276871472760255.html?mod=djemTEW

I suspect the selloff won't be as far as he's looking: two-income, immigrant co-habs and chinese wealth influx, the rise of the international local SD, LA, SF (and concomitant dollar discount).
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:56 pm Post subject:

Neverland faces foreclosure:

http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSN2638244820080226
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mtvk · Veteran Poster Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 170

Why should govt absorb the loss? It looks like Chavez country.
Its like taking someones money (debt) and giving to someone else
without any constitutional basis.

"govt" indirectly here is all tax payers.

In the name of govt, all things done are making this a pseudo-socialistic/dictatorship country.

Its sad in this dreamers country, people vote for promises of liars and not
see the truth of Ron Paul.

Here is an article on ultimate sell signal on US:
http://tinyurl.com/256ypx

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:54 am Post subject:

Spurt of refis last month fading fast:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23366843
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1734 Location: TX

The OFHEO Home Price Report (PDF) shows their all-transactions House Price Index (HPI) rose 0.1 percent over the latest quarter and 0.8 percent over the latest year. Of the 291 cities on OFHEO’s list of "ranked" MSAs, 192 had positive four-quarter appreciation and 99 had price declines. Of the 20 ranked cities with the greatest price declines over the latest four quarters, all but two were in California or Florida (Nevada and Michigan accounted for the remainder). 40 of the 51 "states" (they include D.C.) showed appreciation, and while 11 showed losses in value, there were nine that showed average annual gains of 5% or more, year over year.

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/4q07hpi.pdf

See also:
http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/08/home-price-appreciation-and-its-measurement/
http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/08/compare-and-constrast-on-home-price-appreciation-indices/
http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/08/calculating-the-home-price-impact/

The differences between OFHEO HPI and S&P C-S HPI are important; neither is perfect, but I would lean towards the OFHEO version as more indicative of overall economic impact.

While the OFHEO is "higher" now than the C-S index is, there have been (and will be in the future) times when that relationship is reversed.
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HenryTo · Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:25 am Post subject:

Bill, thanks, that is a great update.

Note that for folks looking at investing in either Fannie or Freddie, the OFHEO HPI and the other OFHEO sub-indices are the ones to watch.

anti · Junior Poster Joined: 07 Jun 2007 Posts: 28

Very interesting update Bill.

I didn't go thru the OFHEO data, But may be you could answer a question
regarding Fannie/Freedie transactions used.....

Do they diferentiate between purchase and refi tranctions ?

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1734 Location: TX

OFHEO publishes both indices separately, sales only and including refis. The all-transactions includes refis.

Check the link (PDF) for the sales only data, it's in the summary at the beginning of the doc.
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He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:07 pm Post subject:

Vulture funds continue to play a very hands-on role - and trying to keep the homeowners in their house at the same time:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aaKT9Z_X9okg&refer=home

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:16 am Post subject:

I've been harping on the need for the Fed to start taking in ABS, mortgages specifically, in the manner of the (much criticized) ECB. The Madman is thinking similarly. Thornberg breaking january lows bodes ill so says he: