 |
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
U.S. GDP Growth |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
 Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:21 pm Post subject: U.S. GDP Growth |
 |
|
Bridgewater's 3Q 2011 forecast for U.S. economic growth:
| Quote: | | Growth so far in the third quarter looks like it is no better than it was in the second quarter, and the recent although limited August stats suggest that both household and business spending may be turning negative. In the second quarter, consumer spending was particularly weak. So far, the July and August stats suggest similar or worse consumer demand. Second quarter business spending was roughly normal. So far, the data for July and August suggest a decline in business spending. In particular, all the ISM/purchasing managers' surveys indicate weaker orders either in July or August, including Thursday's Philly Fed survey. This is also noteworthy because weaker business orders is consistent with weaker emerging market demand (EM demand had been supporting US manufacturing), which has been evident in our direct measurement of economic activity in emerging market economies. When we put the pieces of the puzzle together it looks to us like the snapback in US economic growth that some (including the Fed) had expected is not materializing, but is being overwhelmed by other, more powerful forces such as fiscal tightening, the withdrawal of quantitative easing and the deterioration in financial conditions. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| Author |
U.S. GDP Growth Replies |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 9:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater's latest comments on US GDP growth.
| Quote: | | After expanding at around 4% earlier in the year, US growth has slowed in the last couple of months to about 2%. To some extent both the earlier strong growth rates and current slower growth rates have been impacted by weather conditions. But more importantly the slowdown reflects that we are beyond the peak effects of global monetary stimulation, which raised asset prices, reduced long-term rates and eased tight funding conditions. Tuesday’s numbers were more confirmation that growth is now moderate; April’s retail sales as well as the more timely May releases of the National Home Builders and Empire manufacturing surveys suggest continuing moderate growth rates. Typically, three years into an expansion, stimulation can be pulled back as both incomes and spending are growing at a much faster pace and are reinforcing each other. However, due to the ongoing deleveraging household spending growth rates during this cycle have been weaker and continue to rely on fiscal supports to incomes and monetary stimulation to produce falling savings rates. The ongoing strains in Europe are, of course, an additional risk to the current fragile expansion. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 8:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
I see a lot more of the new MEW in those "declines in Savings." Free foreclosure living for more than a year in many places combined with our new and Depression-honed and improved "black economy" is screwing the stats, as always, at the margins.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 11:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater on latest US GDP numbers.
| Quote: | | The GDP report provides a fairly comprehensive view of US growth conditions up to about a month ago, and the picture conveyed was a touch weaker but generally consistent with everything else we already knew about growth in that period. While the 2.2% print for the first quarter is mediocre relative to history, it is still above our expectations for potential US growth. The most important driver of growth in the quarter was the acceleration in household spending, which was relatively healthy at 2.9% and was financed primarily by falling savings rates. As described in prior Observations, we see mostly downward risks to growth over the next six to 12 months. US and global monetary stimulation produced the declines in savings rates that financed growth in the first quarter, and these drivers of growth are unlikely to be self-reinforcing, especially given that in the coming months monetary stimulation is scheduled to expire and fiscal austerity is scheduled to kick in. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 7:09 am Post subject: |
|
|
Tranports in durables should be up for shakeUP soon, as Boeing in line for 200 plane order. Meanwhile industrials humming along (price action or no).
Caterpillar (CAT) and Boeing (BA) become the latest American manufacturers to easily beat earnings expectations, joining General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON) and myriad others this earnings season. Caterpillar profits grew 29% and it raised guidance for 2012. Boeing beat revenue expectations by over $1B and posted EPS of $1.22, easily beating the mean estimate of 95 cents.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:55 am Post subject: |
|
|
That production number as much a function of GM idling truck lines for model switch (and resin worries across the industry) as anything. Surprise Index performing just fine coming out of the usual mid-cyclical slowdown:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIUSD:IND
A lot is riding on deeuropfication, taxopacalypse and weather--that is just too damn good.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater's latest.
| Quote: | | After accelerating to 4% growth rates over the previous six months, US growth appears to have moderated recently. In the last few weeks, over 80% of major US stats have come in below consensus expectations, and the flat industrial production report on Tuesday was just another in this string of mostly weaker numbers. The question this raises, of course, is whether we are seeing the beginning of a meaningful slowing in growth or just some moderation off very strong growth rates (or a short-term blip). The weaker March stats have not been that weak, as employment still expanded at a moderate pace and demand stats have for the most part remained healthy. As discussed in more detail in our April 12 Observations, we think the most likely path for the US economy is one of gradual cooling, with growth rates remaining healthy in coming months but gradually turning mediocre by early next year. The effects of past easings are ebbing and producing some slowing, while monetary stimulation is set to end and some fiscal tightening may still lie ahead. We continue to monitor the US economy closely to see whether the recent slowing materializes into something more meaningfully faster than we think is likely. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:22 am Post subject: |
|
|
IMF raises GDP outlook today for us and the world.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater on US private demand growth.
| Quote: | | Household demand has been strong since the start of the year and the retail sales report released on Monday showed continued above average demand growth. This provides evidence that the acceleration in US demand over the last several months has so far been sustained. However, the pace of demand growth has been faster than that of income growth in recent months, with households drawing down their savings rate relatively rapidly to finance additional purchases. Maintaining this level of demand would likely require further declines in the savings rate. Furthermore, there are some elements in the composition of the recent strength in retail sales that are likely temporary in nature and could fade in the coming months. The strength in auto demand has likely been supported by vehicle restocking after the drop in sales during the crisis, and the surge in the sales of building materials was likely driven by the unseasonably warm weather this winter. More broadly, retail sales growth is an example of the above-trend growth in the economy that is likely unsustainable. As we wrote in the April 12 Observations, we believe the underlying drivers of the recent growth spurt in the US are inherently limited rather than self-reinforcing. Over the next few months, monetary stimulation and its ripple effects will fade and fiscal austerity is scheduled to kick in. We expect growth to cool by the end of the year. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:02 am Post subject: |
|
|
We've taken 50bps off 2014 FF; and about 20bps off 2013--which in a ZIRP world is a pretty big move.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater's latest two cents.
| Quote: | | The US economy is currently passing through the cyclical sweet spot where strong growth rates can persist without prompting tightening. The US economy is growing faster than capacity and continues to use up the excess capacity created by the financial crisis. Capacity in production has tightened more than capacity in the labor markets. This cyclical improvement has contributed to a normalization of core inflation rates and inflation expectations. As discussed previously, effective monetary policy during a deleveraging should be easy enough to allow nominal growth that gradually eases the deleveraging, but tight enough to prevent either an unacceptable rise in inflation or the reflation of the debt bubble. Cyclical conditions may now be on a path where tightening may be needed in about a year, which is significantly faster than currently discounted. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:39 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater becomes more optimistic.
| Quote: | | As you know from previous Observations, it looks to us like US growth is healthy and probably sustainable in the medium term. Most recent economic releases seem to be confirming the sustained recovery, and the deluge of statistics on Thursday were consistent with this theme. Thursday’s stats show continued above average growth in March, with a mix of production, demand, and employment stats all coming in a bit stronger than in February. Initial claims made new cycle lows, and is consistent with continued strong employment growth. Both the Philly Fed and the Empire Manufacturing Survey suggest that manufacturing growth is above average. And the recent improvement in consumer confidence surveys has pushed them to new highs for this recovery. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
The second biggest was Autos ($20B +) and we just touched a 15m SAAR in Feb! (See "Paradox of Thrift) If anything early year should be settling back with the depreciation/tax stimulus expired end of year.
Right now autos are a form of SAVINGS. And that would accord with the $3B setback for those evil credit cards.
On the mortgage front keep in mind that 80% of new home orders come between Superbowl and May. Seasonals (and Winter) may finally be working out for us.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bridgewater remains neutral to bearish on US economic growth.
| Quote: | Consumer Credit Support to Growth Looks to be Fading
The boost to household spending from the pickup in consumer credit borrowing late last year looks to be starting to fade. Consumer credit borrowing had accelerated to an almost 2% of GDP pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace of borrowing since 2007, and now appears to be stabilizing, removing some of this support. The largest area of loan growth to households has been student loans financed by the federal government. This type of lending is effectively another form of fiscal stimulation, and there is a natural limit on how large this market can get given current regulations. Private sector consumer credit growth has been only moderate and is no longer accelerating. Auto loans were modest in January, and credit card borrowing slowed significantly in the month. Additionally, consumer credit outstanding is only one-fourth the size of mortgages outstanding, so the bigger impact on growth would normally come from the mortgage market, which continues to face strong headwinds. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11743
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:54 am Post subject: |
|
|
[img]http://www.newyorkfed.org/fxc/2011/vol_surv_pr_0111.pdf[/img]
It's important to remember for all the "shadow inventory" and (O)REOs out there, Housing Starts did not disappear. Indeed they now are on the rise. Why? 'Cause people don't want to live in housing graveyards.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
