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rffrydr
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 Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:12 am Post subject: US Steel |
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| Short this morning. Corus deal doing squat--it's only fun when it's in play. Barron's spec buying good for one day...maybe. |
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nonzero
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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No doubt AMZN is an interesting case--no doubt a bigtime squeeze. Funny they should mention OSTK--the permashort stock. Check out NFI with 64% short--of the shares you can count. Failure To Deliver offers an unsqueezable short. --For as long as you'd want to remember.
In the end the Company has to run the company and the market trade on that basis. Maybe X is drawing more and more shorts the higher it goes--but it's leaving plenty of bodies in its wake. Little different from AMZN.
One example of current shenanigans, 130/30, is perfect for a robust non-dividend paying stock like X--if that other 30 is in Alcoa/Alcan or FCX for example that interest isn't going anywhere fast:
http://financial.seekingalpha.com/article/35017
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nonzero
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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Short interest still matters a lot because the company may react to it
See the article at http://www.crossprofit.com/article.asp?id=59
So even everything shorts said is right, they will not allow shorts making money |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 8:15 am Post subject: |
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A very good question in this day and age of "short-interest." Any of those whoe are leveraged are already out and then some. The spikes have been on very thin volume met by heavy selling with little effect.
But short interest isn't short interest anymore (see some of the posts under sentiment and others). The Inst. just sit tight not leaving much for the Merger Chasers to buy. Meanwhile, Insider's are doing their best to meet demand.
They've got to go another 7% by OCT to start costing me although it's worrisome that we're only at historical volilties. I have very strong ideas that this company won't be bought out and is WAY overvalued (traded at less than half this price on same earnings over a year back) yet I'm afraid to short it. Let us live in interesting times!
WSJ April 24
| Quote: | Options traders pounced on steelmakers yesterday ahead of earnings reports and amid optimism about the sector.
Ahead of first-quarter earnings report due today, roughly 52,000 options on AK Steel Holding Corp. changed hands, nearly four times typical volume. Trading focused on contracts that give traders the right to buy stock for $30 by late May.
Notably, the largest open interest was in these May 30 calls, although company shares have only recently approached that price level. AK Steel shares, which traded below $10 more than a year ago, added 5% to $29.75. The shares reached a 52-week high during the session.
Traders positioning themselves for future gains also snapped up 11,300 contracts on September 35 calls, compared to 4,800 already outstanding.
The bullishness comes amid stellar results by U.S. steel companies, thanks to the growing global demand for steel and expectations for industry consolidation.
AK Steel and United States Steel Corp. each report earnings today, following strong showings by fellow producers Nucor Corp. and Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.
There also was heavy trading yesterday in Reliance Steel call options. With company shares adding 4.2% to $61.52, traders snapped up 1,400 May 65 calls compared to 186 contracts outstanding to that point. The price of the May 65 calls more than doubled to $1.20.
U.S. Steel option activity was heaviest in options that convey the right to buy shares at $110 by late May. U.S. Steel added 12 cents to $107.
There also were traders who were willing to pay 25 cents for contracts that benefit only if U.S. Steel shares climb as high as $125 by late May. |
| Quote: | New Delhi
Watch for more Indian companies to go on global shopping sprees. And for many investors, that might be the best thing to do: Just watch.
Some market observers recommend steering clear of Indian companies with global merger-and-acquisition plans unless investors plan to hold the shares a long time. In the short term, the analysts say, such shares are likely to suffer.
To the observers, some corporate titans now in an acquisition mode may not be the best bets for investors looking to buy into India's growth spurt.
Annual growth of more than 8%, easier access to funds and a desire to compete on the world stage have fueled a global buying binge that analysts say is far from over.
In January and February, Indian companies concluded or arranged $21 billion in foreign purchases as they sought production capacity, new technology and enhanced access to overseas markets. In all of 2006, they spent only $9.9 billion, according to accounting firm Grant Thornton.
In the past two weeks, Essar Group has unveiled two billion-dollar deals -- to purchase Algoma Steel of Canada for about $1.63 billion, and to invest $1.65 billion to buy closely held Minnesota Steel Industries and build a new steel mill to be fed by its iron-ore assets. Closely held power company Tata Power agreed to pay $1.3 billion for 30% stakes in coal companies owned by Indonesian miner Bumi Resources.
Many of the bigger deals were leveraged buyouts, meaning the Indian companies, using a mixture of equity and debt, have taken on financial burdens for the purchases. And while the deals could well make sense in the long term, many immediately dented the buyer's share price.
"The investors have not been very happy for the near to medium term," says Phani Sekhar, a fund manager at Angel Broking in Mumbai.
Since Hindalco Industries' $5.73 billion purchase of Atlanta aluminum company Novelis in February, its stock has underperformed the Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock Sensex. Hindalco's share price has dropped 14%, while the Sensex is off 2.2%.
On Jan. 31, the day Tata Steel closed its $12.9 billion acquisition of Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus Group, the firm's stock price fell 11%. Since that decline, and particularly this month, Tata Steel's shares have recovered but mainly because of a positive global outlook for steel demand. Yesterday, they closed at 570.80 rupees ($14) -- 10% higher than on Jan. 29.
Shares of Indian wind-turbine maker Suzlon Energy have been under pressure since Feb. 9, when it unveiled a bid for German wind-energy company REpower Systems. Since then, Suzlon has been locked in a bidding war for the company with French nuclear-engineering company Areva. Shares of Suzlon are 4.4% below where they were when the bid was unveiled.
Investors have a number of worries about foreign purchases, including how the deals will be financed, whether they make strategic sense, and what will they mean for earnings -- especially if the purchases are too costly. Big deals tend to load a company with debt or dilute shareholders' equity through the issue of new stock.
Tata Steel, for example, has said it plans to raise $4.1 billion through a rights issue and convertible-preferred-share issue to partially fund its Corus deal.While Tata Steel hopes to cut $350 million in operating costs through the purchase, analysts are concerned about diluting shares to fund the buyout. |
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nonzero
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 1:23 am Post subject: Short squeeze? |
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8% of float shorted as of April. 86% shares owned by institutions
Short squeeze? The big institutions are definitely good at it.
Forced covering or how long can the shorts hang on there????
Nonzero |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 03, 2007 8:42 am Post subject: |
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China's one thing, but here comes Europe:
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6436713.html?industryid=2151
Mittal ironically, on the crying side. Its' purchase of Bethlehem proves the point: Nothing is Obvious.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:34 am Post subject: |
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Covered.
That's no way to make a (slimest of) profit. 
We'll look to re-enter on rebound--or May 17th? --Or just let it go.
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2007 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| 120mm ton production by 2015 would put them at number 2 behind China's current 400mm tons. This is assuming steel production in all countries remain stagnant, however (which may not be a bad assumption for the US since growth in steel production has been quite stagnant for sometime now). |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 6:36 am Post subject: |
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Should have given more consideration to this:
| Quote: | In the event that absolute return strategies and carry trades have a low probability of turning out well (this is still the case even though the Yen has bounced somewhat over the last week or so). hedge funds will have to make directional bets that are either 1) not correlated with the S&P 500, or 2) if they are correlated, make sure they are either high-beta plays or do not have a meaningful representation in the S&P 500.
This - almost by definition - tells us that the speculation in steel, mining, precious metals, energy, construction stocks, etc. will continue over the next 12 to 24 months. |
Funny you should pick PFE...
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