Vietnam eyes GDP growth of 8.3-8.5 pct next year

[HenryTo]

Official estimates for next year for Vietnam are out. Note that Vietnam's population is approximately 84 million (slightly higher than Germany's population and 250% of California's population) so any effects of industralization and export growth in Vietnam will not have a trivial effect on the world economy:
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Vietnam eyes GDP growth of 8.3-8.5 pct next year

Vietnam will set targets of gaining gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 8.3-8.5 percent and GDP per capita of 820 U.S. dollars in 2007, the National Assembly's Office announced Friday.

At the 10th session of the 11th National Assembly of Vietnam, slated for from Oct. 17 to Nov. 30, the highest legislative body will also discuss other major socioeconomic targets for next year such as gaining export revenues of 45.2 billion dollars, or export growth of 17.4 percent; reaching total social investment of 452 trillion Vietnamese dong (VND) (more than 28.4 billion dollars); and obtaining state budget collection of 274 trillion VND (over 17. 2 billion dollars), the office's chairman Bui Ngoc Thanh said at a press conference.

It will also eye to generate 1.6 million jobs, and providing clean water to 80 percent of urban dwellers and 67.2 percent of rural population, he added.

To this end, Vietnam would sharpen the competitiveness of businesses, actively integrate in the international economy, improve the quality of education and training, and deal with pressing social problems, he said.

During the approaching session, deputies are to discuss the implementation of the anti-corruption law, reports on petition and denouncement settlement, the budget allocation in 2007, and reports of the council for the ethnic minorities on the implementation of the policy on land use for production and accommodation, Thanh said.

The assembly also plans to pass 11 laws and one resolution, including those on tax management, vocational training, gender equality, organ and tissue donation and transplantation, and technology transference, and give opinions to six others, including those on personal income tax, quality of product and commodity, and legal assistance.

This year, Vietnam is likely to gain GDP growth of 8.1-8.2 percent, exceeding the target of eight percent, GDP per capital of 720 dollars, export growth of 18.7 percent, and consumer price index of 7.2-7.5 percent, Thanh said.

Source: Xinhua

[rffrydr]

There's still a large part of that population right here. And, like the Cubans, have nothing to love in this story. Like the Chinese, the Party squeeze is on:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=61839
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

An update on the Vietnamese economy and a glimpse of the pro-business government policies in Vietnam. Quite a change from "35 years ago":

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=axo6R4iq2gS0&refer=economy

[rffrydr]

There IS a way: hint, it's not the Vietnamese, it's the Chinese Vietnamese.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[nodoodahs]

I don't know if I even like Vietnamese FOOD. Besides, they might still be holding a grudge for something my dad did there 35 years ago. I can wait ...
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[HenryTo]

Yes, they are not getting in since the Vietnamese market is not big enough for them to get in in size - and therefore is not going to be a big money maker. Even a closed end fund run by a small shop is not going to extract much fees, given the following:

Equity investors are just as keen. Vietnam's main stock exchange, launched in Ho Chi Minh City six years ago, is still embryonic, with 50 firms and a market capitalization of only $3 billion. But daily trading volume now tops $10 million, a twentyfold gain since January.

The key to making it in Vietnam is to find a Vietnamese partner that you like and 1) open a hedge fund with him and trade stocks on the domestic exchange, 2) raise $5 to $10mm from investors and go into the country and do some private equity deals. Note that 1) and 2) are not mutually exclusive of one another.

Henry

[nodoodahs]

Retail is SOL on this one, apparently. Even the "Asia minus Japan" funds I checked have mostly Aussie stocks, and the "Emerging Markets" must either think Vietnam has finished emerging, or is still submerged. Oh, bother.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[HenryTo]

Unfortunately, there are no ADRs of Vietnamese companies being traded on any of the U.S. exchanges.

http://www.adr.com/

I also did a quick search for potential closed-end funds but I could not find any either:

http://www.etfconnect.com/

Also did not find any on Morningstar:

http://www.morningstar.com

But did find this: http://www.vinacapital.com/?nav1=services&nav2=vof

But that is listed on the London Stock Exchange.

[nodoodahs]

So what's the Vietnam play? Or is there one for a retail investor?
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[HenryTo]

Vietnam roaring ahead:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/12/11/8395481/index.htm