VPHM

cl001 · Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2005 6:48 am Post subject: VPHM

It has been a while since I last post. I want to recommend one of my favaorite stocks right now, VPHM. VPHM bought a medicine called vancomycin from Eli Lilly last Dec. vancomycin turned out to be a home run. VPHM already raised price of vancomycin three time in less than a year, each time 20+%, still vancomycin is stronger than ever. Why? because of the serious and deadly Clostridium Difficile. According to Canadian researchers it is most dangerous superbug to hit North American hospitals in a decade:
"C. difficile is not an uncommon bacterium – but it had some infectious disease specialists worrying that it has become the most dangerous superbug to hit North American hospitals in a decade. In October 2004, researchers found that 7,000 people had been infected with C. difficile in Montreal since 2003, and at least 600 of them died."
Here are some links to the research on Clostridium Difficile:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/hip/gastro/ClostridiumDifficileFAQ.htm
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/hospital-infections/clostridium_difficile.html
Does vancomycin face competition? Not any time soon. You can listen to the recent conference call yourself.
VPHM went up a lot recently. I have to admit that I bought from way below 10, but majority of my shares are bought after the recent earnings and cc, from 11-13. Its earning is estimated at 90c by PJ next year, but I think 1.5 is highly likely. Yesterday it is closed at 14.87, make it incredibly cheap at PE of 10-15 with rev/profits growing at about 20-30% per quarter.
I personally believe 50 is an easy target. But do your own DD, good luck trading.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

I am still long 5 stocks in that space, 2 major oils, 2 shippers, and one specialty chemical.
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

cl001 · Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 8:34 am Post subject:

Thanks, nodoodahs. But I think the biotech index fund is probably quite small to make too much impact on the stock price. But I enjoy reading it.
Question, are you still looking to long oil? See attached image, Dec-Apr are the best period for oil service. I am longing cfk, Q4 and Q1 are its strongest quarters.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=784

Link to paper on the "index effect" in that post.
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2005 2:22 pm Post subject:

cl001,

Looked into it over the weekend and mostly agree with what you're saying. The PR said that VPHM will be added to the NASDAQ Biotech Indx on the 21st of this month. By the way, have you seen any report out there that tries to gauge the performance of a stock after it has been announced that the stock will be added to a certain index?

I have seen a report that looked at stocks being added to the S&P 500. Between the time of the announcement and the actual change in the index, the stock on average outperformed the S&P 500 by over 7%. This is too significant to be ignored. On the other hand, I don't think the adding of the VPHM to the NASDAQ Biotech Index will do much for the stock - since no significant amount of money indexes to the NASDAQ Biotech index - at least in the short-run anyway.

Thanks again,

Henry

cl001 · Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:14 pm Post subject:

Well, I added a little on Thursday at 18+. The genetic is at least 5 years away according to the cc. Akorn has only 37K cash, I doubt it has the financial strength to make it. On the other side, imagine everything goes as planned, in about 1-2 years, Akorn is about to go to phase 3 trial, how do they enroll patients? CDAD has fatality rate of 10-30% depend on virus strength. You are going to tell patients to risk their life for Akorn for a comparison test?
If it is Bar or other major genetic company, I would take it seriously, this Akorn sounds like hedge fund's manipulation to me.
I think the major "disappointment" is the hepatitis-C result. Though it is excellent, VRTX just release an unbelievable result for its own hepatitis-C drug.
Well, one thing made me to add is that no insider selling so far. zero! These insiders bought at a few dollar, has zillion of stock options in the single digit. Unlike most successful companies, no insider is selling!
VPHM is going to included in the nasdaq biotech index on monday, it will be an interesting week with options expiring. Still my largest holding.

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:49 am Post subject:

cl001,

Are you still holding VPHM based on fundamentals? Technically, the stock has been pretty weak after the release of the NYT article, but right now, it just seems like it is consolidating. Just wondering what your take is on this piece of "news":

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051110/viropharma_stock.html?.v=1

Good luck!

Henry

cl001 · Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:00 am Post subject:

NYT article about VPHM and CDAD, now the cat is out of the bag.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09viro.html?pagewanted=print

cl001 · Posted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 7:10 am Post subject:

VPHM just reported 31c earning, beating estimate of 21c handsomely. Now it is trading around 23 in pre market. Notice this quarter only it has one month of price increase. Next quarter will be much better. With strong CDAD winter -> spring season coming, VPHM could easily make 40-50c next quarter, 1.6-2 dollar next year, more if VPHM increases price again.
With 4 quarters of earnings, VPHM should be on IBD soon. I am expecting it will be on the IBD 100 list before the end of the year.
Still holding it as my largest position. Very Happy

cl001 · Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:10 pm Post subject:

VPHM broke 20 decisively this week. We have another 30 to go!

cl001 · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:42 pm Post subject:

nodoodahs:
I don't know when the YE rally will start, I will watch it carefully. I usually enter after we have a confirmed rally. As you said, Nov and Dec are two worst months for oil, that should increase investors' confident for a rally.
As for copper price, it hit a new high today, amazing. I am reading reports about housing slow down from China to CA and to FL. I will stay away from copper for now. One of the key reason I bought PD was for moly. Moly price also softened in the recent months.
I am putting a big bet on VPHM. CDAD has 25-30% fatality rate and growing at 20+%/year. This is life or death situation. I believe VPHM will likely increase the price again before the end of year. VPHM is quite strong today even though the MRK verdict brought down the whole sector, check it out!

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

cl001,

Good point re: oil prices! Real (M3 adj) or nominal, esp. since 1990, the two biggest months of decline are Nov and Dec. I will probably use that time period to add to my oil positions this year if the related stocks drop any. I would reckon that decline in oil prices is due to increased gasoline refinery capacity more than reduced oil demand, primarily because of U.S. EPA requirements on gasoline blends for the summer months.

Question on PD: what attracted you to them specifically in the copper segment? I am still long copper but passed on PD because I liked the fundies of another company better ...

Question on the YE Oct rally: are you waiting to enter just before the rally? What do you anticipate will be your entry signal? Do you anticipate a significant downturn in the month and a half before then?
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

cl001 · Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2005 6:41 pm Post subject:

Thanks Henry.
I took profit and out of PD completely. Copper inventory in LME doubled in the past two weeks. The risk/reward ratio is not there to long copper.
I am gradually taking profit from my oil holdings every day now. Oil may go higher from here, but it goes down from Oct to Feb every year, we are not far from Oct.
This year's big winner for me is IPII, I am out of it completely at average about 20. Now I am hoping VPHM will do the same for me. Otherwise I am holding a lot of cash, waiting for the year-end rally in Oct.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:16 am Post subject: thanks

Thanks, cl001 - nice to see you back! For newer readers, cl001 used to post quite a bit here when the forum was first set up - and his track record has been excellent so far.

cl001, from your earliest posts, I gather that you're still holding PD in your portfolio? Whenever you get a chance, can you give us "a hint" of what the supply/demand situation is in copper and whether the current tight situation will continue in the foreseeable future?

Copper is way overbought on the daily charts - and the gap down a few days ago definitely looks bearish. Moreover, bullish sentiment for copper is now over 80% - which is very overbought any way you look at it.

Thanks!

Henry