vtoreport

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:33 am Post subject: vtoreport

Be careful bulls and bears alike - the DJIA and the NASDAQ Composite is at "very oversold" status per the 5-day RSI at the vtoreport:

http://www.vtoreport.com/

This indicator has been pretty reliable in calling turning points in 2004 but with some of my other indicators still at neutral or even moderately overbought levels, I would definitely wait here - probably until the 5-week RSI gets to "oversold" before initiating long positions.

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 5:31 pm Post subject: S&P Close

Interesting - the S&P 500 actually closed at 1165 today!

NY ARMS Index closed at 1.53 today - definitely a respectable reading but nowhere near close to oversold in that regard.

Per the vtoreport, 5-day RSIs and 5-week RSIs all indicating "oversold" or "very oversold."

If a bounce was to occur, then this will be the logical place to materialize.

Henry

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

Henry,

We are grossly oversold now. The bulls (and the fed Confused

) will throw all they got at S&P 500 - 1165 and DOW 10380. Technically the support below those levels is like falling off a cliff.

Once the S&P 500 closes below 1165 - time to go to the cave with the bears and hope they are gentle.

Dubious

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:52 pm Post subject: today

Okay, the market got more oversold today - but the 10-day MA of the ARMS Index actually decreased. Rydex Titan & Tempest assets also still nowhere near indicating an oversold market. The % of stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ below the 20EMA still not at a low enough percentage here either - at least not close to being at a level that I would be comfortable with going long here.

Our preliminary target to go long (good enough for a trade) is still DJIA 10,250.