Way of the Turtle

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:33 pm Post subject: Way of the Turtle

Has anyone read this yet? I will probably get it soon and review it:

http://www.amazon.com/Way-Turtle-Methods-Ordinary-Legendary/dp/007148664X/ref=cm_lmf_tit_5_rdssss1/002-7797146-6190466

texfly101 · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 108

Have anyone read it yet? I was thinking of picking up a copy of Dividends Don't Lie-Finding Value in Blue Chip Stocks by Weiss and Lowe and might pick this up also if its recommended. Btw, any comments on the Weiss and Lowe book?
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dj

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1736 Location: TX

I haven't read either. But ...

http://tradingblox.com/forum/index.php
Is a forum put together by Curtis Faith, and if you lurk there for a while, you can learn a lot, and probably get some "flavor" from the book, since Curtis is an active participant in the forum.

Also ...

I suspect that part of the "predictive" power of dividends (and buybacks) comes from other factors; any company with spare free cash flow to buy back stock or pay dividends is doing something right, and that something is predictive of future earnings, with the divvies and bbs being co-incident and not causal. Just a thought.
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He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

texfly101 · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 108

Thanks for the reply. I'll check out the website. Most websites that have been posted on this site have proven to be very informative so I really appreciate the advice. I agree with your observation re: dividends as indicative of something right in a company. That is the basic premise of the book. I read it long ago in a library when I first started buying stocks. It was written after the 1987 crash and has some very interesting thoughts on why and when to buy stocks, all built on the fact that a company that has consistently produced a dividend over a period of years is the sign of a well managed company, hence the valuation is not just speculative and will increase as a result of good management. It has served me well over the years, that and a disciplined approach to investing, one of the hallmarks of this website that prompted me to join. So now that the years have passed, I thought I would read it again, the result of a message in another posting on this site to do just that. Re-read a book and you get an even better understanding if I remember the advice. Anyway, thanks, I love reading all the different commentary and follow yours quite closely.
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dj

texfly101 · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 108

its very interesting reading, I like the psychological bent to it. As a side note, it is available for "instant reading" at Amazon.com, which I am doing now.
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dj

texfly101 · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 108

Henry, thanks for the tip to read this book. I probably wouldn't have done so soon except for your initial question regarding anyone having read it.
Anyway, there are three observations that I have concerning his experience as a Turtle. The first was that understanding the personality and psyche of markets and being disciplined to not be swept into emotional decisions was the basis for not losing in the market and for making sound decisions. The second was that there wasn't a preferred system, its using one that worked and being consistent in the use was a requirement. The last was that it was important to not miss being in on a trend. Since you don't know in advance which trend will be the money maker for the year, you have to be in on all trends to ensure that you don't miss the ones that make money, particularly to balance out the losing ones that are necessary to make profits as a result of sound investment decisions. So does sitting out this current bull run after exiting the market in August qualify as doing that? I had thought I was just being conservative and risk adverse but maybe I am being inconsistent in my strategy, becoming emotional to avoid risk and protect my capital since I feel this is a bubble, and making the mistake of not taking advantage of this current trend by exiting too soon. Just to explain, right now I am 20/80 ratioed in market/bonds. Any comments on either the book or its author's contentions?
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dj

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1736 Location: TX

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:35 pm Post subject:

I don't want to dig up a can of worms here, but someone really needs to check up on this article on Traderdaily.com on the turtles:

http://www.traderdaily.com/magazine/article/12282.html

texfly101 · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 108

After finishing the book, I was left with the opinion that it could have been better distilled into an article based on the "Bonus Chapter". It was supposed to be what happened during his time as a Turtle. While it was pitched as "learn the secrets of the Turtles", and I would think that most that buy it would have been expecting something of the sort, it took reading to the end chapter to get to those methods. Imo, it was more a commentary on what his current data research company methods are. All the technical analysis was based on those methods and were not historical in nature. So no real in depth analysis of the Turtle's period. The main message was to be in the markets and not miss the big moves. He speaks of missing a trade on coffee because they were restricted from trading in that commodity. No real explanation of why that happened other than a couple of sentences of general comments. Not as much historical context as I was wanting, the majority of data was in the last decade. Maybe I was expecting more of a historical account that told of who did what, what happend, why and more analytical data from those trades and period and as such was disappointed and am not appreciating his current analytical methods which formed the majority of the book. I would recommend it only if you were wanting to add to your Curtis Faith bibliography.
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dj

texfly101 · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 108

I re-read my review of the book and felt I was too negative. I was expecting more of a memoir focusing on that period. I actually enjoyed the book and what he had to say, particularly since he wrote a lot on the psychology of trading and explained quite a bit of his views on the technical aspects of trading and systems. You definitely get his views on trading and systems analysis with examples based on 2000 time frame data. Just not a lot of 1980's trading war stories. So I would say that it would be an interesting read as long as you were wanting to read about how he trades in today's markets.
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dj