What is Up with Natural Gas?

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 11:00 am Post subject: What is Up with Natural Gas?

Since our December 17th commentary was published ("What is Up with Natural Gas?"), natural gas prices (basis the January 2007 contract) are already down by more than $1/MMBtu.

The contract is way oversold but a solid bottom is still nowhere in sight. For now, I prefer to sit and wait on the sidelines before buying anything natural-gas related (regulated pipelines notwithstanding). Watch out for Canadian producers especially since I believe the Canadian dollar is still way overvalued.

Best,

Henry

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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:46 pm Post subject:

It's the "residual."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:53 am Post subject:

"Wet gas" still profitable for some producers at $1/MMBtu.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/a-natural-gas-disconnect-bargain-bin-prices-surge-in-supplies/article2368417/

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:10 pm Post subject:

Latest rig count.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/71230/Big+Drop+in+Natural+Gas+Rig+Count

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Mar 10, 2012 8:50 pm Post subject:

Honda asking its dealers to boost its natural gas network.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/honda-looks-to-u-s-dealers-to-boost-natural-gas-station-network.html

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:02 pm Post subject:

Folks now looking for a $1.xx handle on natural gas. May be a good inflation hedge later this year. Still looking for UNG to bottom in the $12 to $15 range.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/markets-nymex-natgas-idUSL2E8E732620120307

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:47 pm Post subject:

One more (deserving) casualty of natural gas prices. Large, bloated PE deals during the late stages of the boom can only be good for the fee-taking managers.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/df4c820e-6479-11e1-b50e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1oJUgQaQq

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:35 am Post subject:

Build, Baby, Build!
By Glenn Williams
| Mar 05, 2012 | 5:00 PM EST | 2 Comments

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:47 pm Post subject:

Another day; another bloodbath in natural gas.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203458604577263283091161056.html

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 6:20 pm Post subject:

Number of natural gas rigs sinks to its August 2009 lows.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/natgas-rig-count-hits-31-month-low/

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:15 pm Post subject:

You got that right--I'll be buying when that happens. NG curve got even steeper today. Still looking for $12 to $15 before I buy, and perhaps as an inflation hedge as well.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:32 pm Post subject:

Time for one of those "up close and personal" pieces in the papers showcasing UNG investors. "Return to the Mean"--which always sorta works in commodities is broken twice.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:36 pm Post subject:

Bloodbath in the NYMEX natural gas markets today.
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NYMEX-Natural gas off 6 pct early after light stock draw

* Light weekly stock draw pressures prices

* Mild weather, high supplies also weigh on sentiment

* Nuclear outages, rig count falls, producer cuts support

* Coming up: Baker Hughes rig data, CFTC trade data Friday

By Joe Silha

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures extended losses to more than 6 percent early on Thursday after a government report showed a weekly inventory draw below market expectations.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic gas inventories fell last week by 82 billion cubic feet to 2.513 trillion cubic feet. Traders and analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 90-bcf decline.

"The 82-bcf draw was small relative to street expectations. The overarching bearish theme persists as the draw is very small versus historical norms for this time of year," Mike Tran, analyst at CIBC World Markets, said in a report.

At 11:35 a.m. EST (1635 GMT), the NYMEX front-month gas futures contract was down 16.7 cents, or 6.4 percent, at $2.449 per million British thermal units after sliding to an intraday low of $2.444 after the inventory report.

Prior to the release of the storage data at 10:30 a.m., the front month was trading in the $2.525 area.

The weekly draw fell short of the year-ago and five-year average declines for that week, increasing the surplus to last year by 3 bcf to 756 bcf, or 43 percent, and adding 36 bcf to the five-year average excess, raising the total to 780 bcf, or 45 percent.

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 7:47 pm Post subject:

Wouldn't want to be Gazprom about now.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:34 pm Post subject:

Tons of gas coming into the market over the next several years.
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World Oil News Center

Algerian shale gas potential equal to that of U.S.

Algerian Energy Minister Youcef Yousfi revealed that his country's reserves of shale gas are equal to that of the USA, Algerian Press Service (APS) has reported.

“The initial results of the evaluation of the non-conventional gases, mainly shale gas, showed that reserves in the country are at least equal to the US reserves,” APS quoted Yousfi as saying.

Shale gas development in America has driven a multi-billion dollar scramble for assets, field development, and impacted global gas forecasts.

The minister also called all companies interested in development such type of gas and hold the necessary technical knowledge to develop these fields with the optimal conditions. “A huge reforms related to the law have been adopted with the aim to intensify prospection mainly in the offshore and the areas unknown,” he added.

In May 2011, Algeria’s state controlled energy company Sonatrach has signed a cooperation agreement with Italian company Eni, for the development of unconventional oil and gas in Algeria, with particular focus on shale gas.

"Based on previous assessments, Eni confirms the significant shale gas reserves in Algeria which Eni and Sonatrach wish to explore and develop. This will enable both companies to make important discoveries which will enhance the gas potential of the country,” Eni and Sonatrach said in their joint statement.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 8:23 am Post subject:

$15 for 250mi on CRX(G) and free commuter lanes in Cali--it's embarrassing we haven't done more with this.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!