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What is Up with Natural Gas? |
HenryTo
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 Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 11:00 am Post subject: What is Up with Natural Gas? |
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Since our December 17th commentary was published ("What is Up with Natural Gas?"), natural gas prices (basis the January 2007 contract) are already down by more than $1/MMBtu.
The contract is way oversold but a solid bottom is still nowhere in sight. For now, I prefer to sit and wait on the sidelines before buying anything natural-gas related (regulated pipelines notwithstanding). Watch out for Canadian producers especially since I believe the Canadian dollar is still way overvalued.
Best,
Henry
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What is Up with Natural Gas? Replies |
HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2010 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| UNG down another 2.33% to 8.80 today. March 2010 gas down about 15% over the last six trading sessions. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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Heating Oil can't escape it's own shadow.
10 years ago we were out of gas. Now we're supplied for 1-2 Hundred years. 
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:54 am Post subject: |
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Natural gas still struggling despite the snowstorms over the last few weeks. UNG, in particular, is still in the dumps and should continue to be for the foreseeable future:
| Quote: | Natural gas tumbles on large supplies
Natural gas prices fall after report says supplies still high despite frigid weather
NEW YORK (AP) -- Natural gas prices tumbled nearly 3 percent after the government said supplies are still higher than average despite a rash of snowstorms that blanketed the East Coast during the past few weeks.
Natural gas is used to both heat homes and power electric generators, and supplies generally drop in the winter as homeowners crank up the heat.
The Energy Information Administration said natural gas stores did fall last week. However the remaining supply of 2.03 trillion cubic feet is still nearly 3 percent higher than the five-year average.
With the winter more than half over, analyst Stephen Schork said natural gas prices were headed lower.
"We're at the end of the season," he said. "And there's an assumption out there that we have a lot of storage capacity, a lot of untapped wells that could easily be brought online."
The EIA said in a separate report that supplies of distillates, including diesel fuel and heating oil, fell almost twice as much as expected last week. The drop in supplies was due in part to a plunge in imports of those fuels.
Crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 334.5 million barrels, which is 5.4 percent below year-ago levels, according to the EIA.
Oil prices held onto increases from earlier in the day as the dollar fell. Oil barrels are priced in U.S. currency, and they tend to go up in price as the dollar weakens and makes oil easier to buy for investors holding foreign currency.
Benchmark crude for March delivery added $1 at $78.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude increased 68 cents at $76.95 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange.
At the pump, retail gas prices rose overnight for the first time in nearly two weeks to a national average of $2.614 a gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of regular unleaded is still 12.6 cents cheaper than a month ago. It's 65.7 cents more expensive than the same time last year.
In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil added 2.73 cents to $2.034 a gallon, and gasoline rose 2.96 cents to $2.0367 a gallon. Natural gas lost 13.5 cents to $5.251 per 1,000 cubic feet. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 8:35 am Post subject: |
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"Blizzsard of '22" bringing 2inches of snow per hour to eastern seaboard. Look for everything to shut down for a week or so--including retail.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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Cold is holding breakout above $5 and good pop in face of dropping commodities.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:15 am Post subject: |
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Rig counts still recovering:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100122-709758.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
| Quote: | The number of oil and gas rigs climbed to 1,282, up 34 from the previous week, according to data from oil-field services company Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI). The number of gas rigs was 833, an increase of 22 rigs from last week, while the oil rig count was 437, an increase of 12 rigs. The number of miscellaneous rigs was unchanged at 12 rigs.
The number of gas rigs in use peaked at 1,606 in September 2008. Producers cut natural-gas drilling sharply last year in response to falling prices, but the rig count has begun to recover in recent weeks as producers bet on colder winter weather and an economic recovery that would spark demand for the fuel.
Cold weather in the major gas-consuming regions in recent weeks has supported prices and put a substantial dent in inventories. Total gas in U.S. storage for the week ended Jan. 15 was 2.607 trillion cubic feet, in line with the five-year average and just above last year's level.
Natural gas for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up 21.1 cents, or 3.76%, at $5.826 a million British thermal units. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Jan 16, 2010 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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A significant gas find in the Gulf of Mexico:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/6818577.html
| Quote: | A team led by New Orleans' McMoRan Exploration Co. said this week it made one of the biggest discoveries in the Gulf's shallow waters in decades.
The claim was based on results from a well, drilled in 20 feet of water to a depth of more than 28,000 feet, that found a 135-foot column of petroleum-rich rock at the Davy Jones prospect.
Additional drilling will be needed to confirm the well's true potential, but the team said the early results suggest, even beyond Davy Jones, there is plenty more oil and gas to be found in the deeply buried layers of sediment.
“Go back through the history of development in our business, and odds are, we've got more than one of these in front of us,” said John Schiller, CEO of Energy XXI, a Hamilton, Bermuda-based firm run from Houston that has a 16 percent stake in the project.
Industry analysts had predicted that ultradeep gas plays in the shallow-water Gulf of Mexico would contribute to U.S. natural gas supplies over time. But the Davy Jones discovery is likely to accelerate activity in the region.
Matt Snyder, lead analyst for Gulf of Mexico research at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, had projected commercial production from the wells by 2017. Now, in light of the announcement, he said the firm will likely revise its forecast to 2014.
The additional output could help arrest steep declines in natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico in recent years. Gas production from the basin today is roughly 7 billion cubic feet per day, about half what it was in 2001.
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Analysts with Jefferies Research this week estimated the Davy Jones discovery could contain some 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Partners in the project said the formation may even hold triple that, as well as other hydrocarbons. And they said it verified the presence of a major new exploration frontier that could yield much more oil and natural gas in coming years.
“It remains to be seen what this is going to do to total gas supply, but I would say it's pretty rare that you find one discovery by itself without other finds nearby,” said Matt Pickard, market analyst with Quest Offshore Resources in Sugar Land. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:27 am Post subject: |
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The number of natural gas rigs is recovering slowly, but surely. Also, note that UNG actually declined 1.89% to 10.41 yesterday, despite one of the worst cold snaps in U.S. history.
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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas in the U.S. climbed this week as producers brought rigs back to work in response to higher energy prices.
The number of oil and gas rigs rose to 1,220, up 31 from the previous week, according to data from oil-field services company Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI). The number of gas rigs was 781, a increase of 22 rigs from last week, while the oil rig count was 427, an increase of 9 rigs. The number of miscellaneous rigs was unchanged at 12 rigs.
The number of gas rigs in use peaked at 1,606 in September 2008. Producers had curbed natural-gas drilling sharply over the past several months in response to falling prices, but the rig count has begun to recover as cold winter weather drives up the demand for natural gas for heating. Front-month natural gas for delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange shot above $6 a million British thermal units this week, the highest price since last January.
Gas supplies, however, remain ample. Total gas in U.S. storage for the week ended Jan. 1 was 3.123 trillion cubic feet--about 10% above last year's level and 11% above the five-year average.
Nymex natural gas for February delivery was recently down 10.3 cents, or 1.77%, at $5.703 a million British thermal units. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:54 am Post subject: |
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Cold doing its work:
Working gas in storage was 3,123 Bcf as of Friday, Jan. 1, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This corresponds to a net decline of 153 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 286 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 316 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,807 Bcf, the EIA said.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:21 am Post subject: |
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Exxon bets on....fossil fuels. Algea and now Nat Gas, 41billion XTO.
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