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rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:13 am Post subject: |
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The spark felt 'round the world is still burning. Still a question if the circle completes....in china.
Meanwhile the emerald city sells what it has left: itself.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-11/dubai-brokers-choose-sandwiches-over-stocks-with-volume-down-77-.html
| Quote: | | With little to trade, ex-stockbrokers are running restaurants, nightclubs and luxury hotels, waiting for a catalyst to reignite markets. Vyas Jayabhanu, the manager of Al Dhafra Financial Broker LLC, has spent the past year developing Boutique 7 Hotel and Suites, a four-star Dubai hotel complete with a bar, a café and soon a nightclub....“For now, I’m working on enhancing my personal brand,” the 33-year-old former banker said. “Maybe I’ll bring a franchise to Dubai, such as a shisha- based bowling alley, a fusion enterprise of some sort. Or maybe I’ll start a twitter feed.” |
And out the mouths of babes:
| Quote: | “We are simply not making any money through brokerage,” said Jayabhanu of Al Dhafra. “There’s a vicious fight to make use of small volume. In tourism, there’s something for everybody,” said the broker, who spends much of his time on the hotel project. “Encouraging clients to trade in this market condition is not ethical.”
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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Out to refi $10B...sharia on the way.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:12 am Post subject: |
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Best psychological case-study of MidEast despot ever "revealed" in this fictional radio portrayal over three-parts. Note: best listened to after midnight.
http://joefrank.com/shop/index.php?l=product_detail&p=202
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:02 am Post subject: |
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"Day of Allegiance":
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000009844&play=1
Cramer takes great comfort in this interview (and I'm a believer that Saudi Arabia is where the dominos stop). This just makes me more nervous. Earlier they were saying that they couldn't have a march because women couldn't mix with males in public!
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2011 6:49 am Post subject: |
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Most oil infrastructure in Libya was foreign operated but there is still flow, and good grounds for more:
| Quote: | Libya’s second-largest state-owned oil company is hoping to sell crude oil from fields controlled by rebels to raise funds for the opposition movement, which is locked in a three-week bloody conflict to oust Muammer Gaddafi.
The Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which is wholly owned by the National Oil Company, is contacting buyers and setting up a trading department, an Agoco official said. The company, which has headquarters in Benghazi, the eastern city that has become the opposition’s headquarters, has pledged its support to the uprising against Col Gaddafi’s 41-year rule.
“Agoco is now part of the revolution so we are trying to get money from the oil,” the official told the Financial Times. “It will be on behalf of the [opposition] national council, but we will do the business.”
The opposition set up the national council last week and it is claiming to be the legitimate representative of Libya and desperately seeking international recognition. France became the first country to formally recognise the body on Thursday, in a boost to the opposition. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:58 am Post subject: |
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The Saudis have not let this crisis gone to waste:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41753331
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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BNY Mellon, courtesy Alphaville:
| Quote: | It is worth considering that Libya, Algeria, Bahrain and the Yemen
collectively account for just under 5% of global oil production (with the
first two accounting for the vast majority of this number) while the
largest conventional oil field in the world (the Ghawar field, accounting
for an estimated 6.25% of global production) lies no more than 70 miles
away from the end of the King Fahd Causeway leading out of Bahrain.
TT
Although we most certainly do not expect the unrest in Bahrain to spill
over into other states in the region, it seems reasonable to suppose that
the events of this weekend will lead to a increasingly significant risk
premium being attached to oil prices. We therefore need to seriously
consider the potential impact such a shock would have on the USD. In light
of this it seems appropriate to look back at what happened during the last
three great Middle East related oil shocks.
TT
It is difficult to come to any definitive conclusions about the reaction of
the USD to Middle East related oil price shocks. After all, the reaction of
the USD to events in 1973 was remarkably different to that seen during the
invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Nevertheless, it is possible to venture one
tentative observation. This is that it is not immediately obvious that an
oil price shock should necessarily be a USD negative.
TT
Certainly, the
evidence from 1973 and early 1974 indicates that investors actually sought
out the USD as a safe haven during the height of the crisis. Even in 1979
the USD remained surprisingly stable with the only major bouts of weakness
coming when the US became directly involved with events on the ground (the
start of the hostage crisis, the failed rescue mission Interestingly, this
latter observation finds an echo in 1990. Certainly it is noticeable that
the USD came under pressure ahead of the start of Desert Storm but staged a
sharp rally once it became clear once the conflict was over (and,
admittedly, that oil prices were declining).
there
is good evidence to suggest that unless the US is actually caught up in
events on the ground, then the USD could even represent a safe haven of
sorts. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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There they all are....with brooms, cleaning up, making a square they want to live in and sending a very anti-iraqui, anti-iranian message: "we are the civilized civilians." Like Hamas in '06, not only will the revolution be televised, (ironic with all the storm of unplugging the internet) the television will determine the revolution. Who can say no to this one. No wonder the shorts scrambled.
Now back to the domino theory: will they bring flowers?
http://www.economist.com/node/18114401?story_id=18114401
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:25 am Post subject: |
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The Statfor account courtesy Mauldin:
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2011/02/03/intelligence-guidance-the-situation-in-egypt.aspx
Have to say I'm with the "western media" on this one. The demonstrations are obviously spontaneous and led by the literate, english speaking, facebook toting youth (that Syria has a pro-leader facebook page proves this). The Egyptian bakers working 10 hours a day for the cost of cigarettes are NOT part of sparking this--but their resentment is clearly behind it. Yes the Muslim Brotherhood wants to use the good face of "civilized Cairo" to do its dirty work. But revolution can move both ways. I'll say right now that the prospect of "one man, one vote, one time" is no prospect at all here.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:56 am Post subject: |
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One word not in this brief overview: "Suez"
Egypt
Published: January 27 2011 15:14 | Last updated: January 27 2011 17:56
| Quote: | Intense political protests could help make Egypt a splendid growth market. But sadly, that is not the most likely outcome.
Although Egypt has been making decent progress – gross domestic product has risen at a 5.5 per cent rate since 2003 – it still has many characteristics that were once called Third World: a tiny and very rich elite, a small middle class and ill-educated masses (almost 30 per cent of the population is illiterate). A dictatorial government uses repression and subsidies to keep the peace. One result: the fiscal deficit and total government debt are high at 8 and 72 per cent of GDP respectively.
Investors, including foreigners, have happily downplayed the structural difficulties and the 11 per cent inflation rate. Encouraged by the presence of a pro-market finance minister, Youssef Boutros-Ghali, they have funded much of the fiscal deficit and pushed the stock market up almost 10-fold since 2003. Several emerging market strategists included Egypt, with its 80m people and developing business culture, on their lists of next-generation growth tigers.
If the most sophisticated protesters have their way, the current disruption could feed the tiger by ushering in a more dynamic regime. But street movements that start in hope often end in repression or, if they are successful, in civil disorder. Those that end well – such as in eastern Europe – do not suffer from sectarianism, and are aided by a democratic tradition. Neither condition applies to Egypt.
Also, the economic approach of what appears to be the best organised opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, is unknown. The 18 per cent drop in the Egyptian stock market over the last 10 days, including an 11 per cent fall on Thursday, looks sensible. The autocratic regimes of Tunisia and Egypt were never economic wonder-workers. But their successors could still be worse. |
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