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WINTER
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Author WINTER
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:34 am    Post subject: WINTER Reply with quote

WalMart sales and a cacooning nation will play games with the Street's expectations as is happening across the pond today:
Quote:

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.K. retail sales dropped more than
twice as much as economists forecast in January as the nation’s
winter freeze thwarted spending on items from food to furniture.
Sales excluding gasoline fell 1.2 percent from December,
the Office for National Statistics said today in London.
Economists predicted a 0.5 percent drop, according to the median
of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The report uses new
methodology in line with European rules.
The longest cold snap since 1981 snarled traffic and kept
workers home last month just as Chancellor of the Exchequer
Alistair Darling raised value-added tax. With jobless claims at
the highest since 1997 and the prospect of a government budget
squeeze taking hold after the election, weakness in consumer
spending may jeopardize the economic recovery.


....all serving to make a weak economy look strong come this spring--and then we'll find out just what appearances are made of. It could work out really well for our unemployed.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Polar Vortex is loosing it's mojo:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/science/earth/25cold.html?_r=1&hp
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 01, 2010 7:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Coldest August in London in 20 years....no wonder they can't keep a rally going.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sometimes all it takes is a little sunshine:

http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/channel/Entrepreneurship/news/1018837/retailers-world-cup-winners-sales-rise/

Tim Melvin
Fair And Balanced
7/26/2010 3:17 PM EDT


Quote:
In the interest of fair and balanced I must report that this week's beach traffic was the heaviest I have seen in the past couple of years. It was brutal in both directions throughout the day Saturday. The back up at the Bay Bridge reached over 8 miles at one point during the day. That is the first time this summer I have seen this type of heavy traffic and the first Non Dover NASCAR weekend I can recall traffic backing up more than 5 miles. Returning traffic was backed up over three miles in the westbound direction. I am told some of this has to do with the addition of table games and poker to at least one of the Delaware racetracks recently but it was still a strong sign that the 80% of Americans still employed are looking for vacations and entertainment.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Best CC since Jan. '08....got to be the sunshine 'cause it can't be anything else:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1530085307&play=1
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu May 27, 2010 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The beancounters and Oracles have overstepped their bounds in the case of Deere. Forgetting the absolutely crucial role of the seasons in their market and seasonal thinking in their customer, they constricted the company to a profit maximizing equilibrium point with a Wall St. time horizon undercutting even the relatively short time horizon of one year.

Deere is a metaphor. Watch for good news in the declining productivity print.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_18/b4176029768574.htm
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2010 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spring sales. The definition of "pent up":

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-retail9-2010apr09,0,7794081.story
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Goldman's take on the big freeze:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/05/166566/and-now-the-weather-from-goldman/
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 7:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The white stuff all over this jobs report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYoZtT2hYnFk&pos=1

The 1996 precedent does warm the imagination however.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 25, 2010 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you believe in the recovery? Well many are giving up with today's durables and jobless:

Quote:
Interestingly today we saw the reverse of what usually happens with the unemployment number. The no seasonally adjusted number actually fell while the headline went up. It was still 452,000 which is a huge number for an economy that is allegedly starting to recover. All of the numbers so far this week have indicated to me that the economy is not recovering at all. We are stuck in an extended recession. The durable goods ex defense and aircraft was horrible. Until we see jobs and real estate get better there is not going to be enough consumer demand to decide that it is all better out there. It is not


Quote:
Tom Graff
Durable Goods Disturbing
2/25/2010 10:01 AM EST


The drop-off in durable-goods orders (excluding transportation) is problematic. I know they revised upward the previous reading, which is all fine and good, but this number should be accelerating. The inventory rebuild period of the recovery is occurring now, and it is supposed to generate strong growth that eventually turns into strong final demand. Right now, it's not showing any trend.

I've been calling for a Fed hike in August, but some of the numbers are starting to go the wrong way. Stay tuned.


This is where winter plays games with people's "mark-to-market" ideas.

For my part this just sets up a stronger spring and with an added push from some kind of advance on healtcare politics and a scramble for the last of the first-time buyer program. We'll see.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The old (and long-suffering) cold weather trade:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62bdd170-1fde-11df-8deb-00144feab49a.html


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