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WINTER
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Author WINTER
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:34 am    Post subject: WINTER Reply with quote

WalMart sales and a cacooning nation will play games with the Street's expectations as is happening across the pond today:
Quote:

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.K. retail sales dropped more than
twice as much as economists forecast in January as the nation’s
winter freeze thwarted spending on items from food to furniture.
Sales excluding gasoline fell 1.2 percent from December,
the Office for National Statistics said today in London.
Economists predicted a 0.5 percent drop, according to the median
of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The report uses new
methodology in line with European rules.
The longest cold snap since 1981 snarled traffic and kept
workers home last month just as Chancellor of the Exchequer
Alistair Darling raised value-added tax. With jobless claims at
the highest since 1997 and the prospect of a government budget
squeeze taking hold after the election, weakness in consumer
spending may jeopardize the economic recovery.


....all serving to make a weak economy look strong come this spring--and then we'll find out just what appearances are made of. It could work out really well for our unemployed.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rffrydr wrote:
"Distortions" can become their own reality:

http://robertbrusca.blogspot.com/2012/01/more-weathr-aided-housing-strength.html


Today's retail sales should have started to show the "pull forward" effect of warm winter distortions. They assuredly did not. This "bad beat" attitude will probably carrry into June--as if home shoppers are going to shop less!

Next up: the "Taxopaclypse."
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The capitulation no-snow?????

Quote:

There's no way that natural gas can stay down here when Devon Energy (DVN), EOG Resources (EOG) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) are simply throwing in the towel on new drilling, and Ultra Petroleum (UPL), which is all nat gas, is cutting its budget in half. Southwestern Energy (SWN) has also indicated it will do the same.

That's pretty much everybody who matters. It's as if there is a driller's strike, as it is all going the way of oil now, given the sky-high price of crude.

This development is what's causing Chesapeake to go higher today. That, alone, is saying bottom in nat gas.

If this is indeed the floor, then you have to be thinking that Chesapeake, which is so, so heavily shorted, might be a decent bet, but once again, I come back to Devon being a terrific play, and EOG, which is down today after running up gigantically these last few days, as a close second.

I think that the cessation in drilling is going to put a floor on nat gas, but I don't think it can run too much because there is still so much of it. I would bet that it might not get above $3 and change anytime soon. But it comes at an important time. As good as oil is, it can't make up for the heavy declines in the price of natural gas if they keep heading lower.


--Madman.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russia produces only 1.8 million cars, little more than half of Brazil. That must be a cold place--which accounts for the complexioin on this:


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Distortions" can become their own reality:

http://robertbrusca.blogspot.com/2012/01/more-weathr-aided-housing-strength.html

Where we really need it, and just might get it, is europe.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a wind at our back:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-06/heidelbergcement-finds-mild-winter-a-shelter-from-chilly-economy.html

Quote:
“Usually, construction companies lay down their tools in November or December and go on a winter break,” Schwenk’s Hirth said in the Jan. 3 phone interview. “This year, they continued to work, so there’s demand for cement.”

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Xmas looks cheery in the Sudetenland:


http://www.cnbc.com/id/40350176
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Retail Sales Rise 0.5%, The Biggest Gain Since March.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unsurprisingly, there is such a thing as a "bad weather year" economically speaking:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Markets/Analyst_Calls/vwD16IRaeN_0.mp3
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2011 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hail and pouring rain while I was buying my watermelon yesterday in N. CAL.

Pending home sales "surprise." How are you ever gonna "seasonally adjust" that .
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PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2011 6:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lowes, Home Depot. But they had leveraged themselves to spring.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Winter took 1% out of Q1 GDP despite a level Architect's Billing Index....return to mean?
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So bad can't get the coffee out in the cold (from Starbucks earnings call):

Quote:
“We were a bit soft in Canada, and Canada is our biggest international market,” Alstead said. The country was “really hard hit by weather in the quarter.”

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knocks out another stat.

We're lucky to get a decent read on year-on-year--which also has its seasonality. Bring back the old german way--or, Berkshire, the one "timeless" investment on the NYSE.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekly jobless claims getting ridiculous. Forecast with weatherman.
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blaming where blame is due:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/25/468601/ugly-uk-gdp-figures/
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