YUANWARD and UPWARD

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:19 am Post subject: YUANWARD and UPWARD

Continues to forge incremental new highs and going uncovered by media. Japan begins a mini-repat next week.

May take some of this Carry off.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 5:36 am Post subject:

Pegged lower after trade balance shock.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:01 am Post subject:

....well, right on cue--with an exclamation mark!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/us-china-trade-idUSTRE8260N920120307

"Why did the U.S. have a $700 billion overall trade deficit? Why did China have an overall trade surplus of only $150 billion but a trade surplus of $200 billion with the United States?" Chen responded rhetorically to a journalist's question.

"Every man, free from prejudice and armed with common sense economics can come to the right conclusion," Chen said.

Though I'm fine with current yuan, personally I'm a bit taken aback at Chen's shock that US figure include Hong Kong. Anyone who was there in '97 knows just how much part of china HK is. You could probably add three or four other countries into that mix as well.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:54 pm Post subject:

That G20 may have (like so many things in this Middle Kingdom) been all for show. Little noticed by the markets, yuan has slipped off the dollars back and announcements of "equilibrium" have been made.

From CS yesterday:

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2011 10:33 pm Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 6:15 am Post subject:

Fully convertible by 2015 with London vetted as trading center--that's big news.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:50 pm Post subject:

Taking the bit, Yuan pushed to new highs....Bernanke's bluff is starting to bite.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:22 am Post subject:

Back to '08: rising yuan as inflation-fighter legitimizes US appeaser. Li Ki Shing's underperforming REIT shows most speculative inflows that can be long are already long.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 7:31 am Post subject:

These two go together:

· About 7% of China’s foreign trade was done in yuan up from 0.5% a year ago.
· China’s National Radio said that China aims to double worker wages by the end of 2015 via an annual increase of 15%.

There won't be a robust bond market 'til capital controls come off. What are the odds? That will be the limiting factor on Yuan appreciation and probably make this trade verrrrrrry slowwwww.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 8:36 am Post subject:

That other Weimar. Provocative. And playing out before us.

Yet, an yuan tied to gold is a dollar tied to gold so the argument is self-defeating. A yuan behind a wall is just a yuan behind a wall....are we on to one grand "separate but equal" experiment?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/232243-remember-the-gold-yuan-of-1949-beijing-does

Don't agree with this but the market seems to. The ultimate yuan-demoniated hard asset is not gold or rice, it's the american consumer's dollar. A savings culture will only underscore this.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:21 am Post subject:

That other currency crisis:

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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 8:56 am Post subject:

Bernanke's chart shown in Frankfurt tempering the outflows hysteria:

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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2010 9:14 pm Post subject:

Krugman the diplomat:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1614843736&play=1

"China is the bad guy."
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:20 am Post subject:

Took the hit from Norway with the Nobel this week, despite sending a personal delegation to make a deal "Norway couldn't refuse." In the award speech they said that sign of mature economy is ability to take criticism.

Small country, big impact on self-image IMHO.
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:37 pm Post subject:

No doubt there will be more international political for the Chinese to revalue the Yuan:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-13/china-trade-surplus-caps-biggest-quarter-since-2008-adding-yuan-pressure.html

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:48 pm Post subject:

There's some movement after Geithner's exasperation:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/20/346961/the-renminbis-release-is-speeding-up/
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